Research Of The U.S. Counter-cyclical Monetary Policy Influence On China’s Economy

From November 2008 to December 2013, in order to stimulate the downturn of the economy after the subprime crisis, the federal reserve successively implemented the round of quantitative easing, actively released of liquidity n the basis of the low interest rates, the U.S. economy began to slow recovery. On the December 19th,2013 the federal reserve announced that it would gradually compressed the scale of bond purchasing according to obvious signs of economic recovery, monetary policy the United States turned around. From this view, America’s monetary policy manipulating has the obvious characteristics of countering economic cycle. In the background of trade and financial intercourse between China and America increasingly closing, the study of American counter-cyclical monetary policy spillover effect and the influence on China’s economy contribute to risk prevention and policy making.From the two aspects of theory and empirical research, analyzing spillover effects of American counter-cyclical monetary policy and the impact on China’s economy. In the theory research, this paper introduces the theoretical basis of the M-F model, the new open macroeconomics model(NOEM) and the DSGE model, and the following empirical research and policy is based on the theoretical basis; In the aspect of empirical research, firstly it uses the multivariate GARCH model to empirically analyze the asset price volatility correlation of China and the United States in the environment of the quantitative easing monetary policy, the figure of correlation coefficient pointed out that in the quantitative easing monetary environment, the asset prices fluctuations of China and the United States has a positive spillover effect; Secondly, it established an open economy price stickiness DSGE models between the two countries, with introducing external shocks from money supply of the United States, calculating economic impact dynamic response curve by the stochastic simulation, and the empirical result is that, output level and the price level in China is influenced positively under the positive impact of money supply in the United States, at the same time RMB will appreciate and the terms of trade improve in the short term; Thirdly, through the establishment of the VAR model and on the basis of macroeconomic data, empirically analyzing the counter-cyclical monetary policy of United States and the influence on China’s economy in the of the macro aspect, and calculating variance decomposition and impulse response figure, the empirical results are as follows:withdrawing from the quantitative easing of the United States will contribute to ease inflationary pressures, and at the same time make slightly adverse impact on China’s economic development. In the end, put forward policy suggestions aimed at possible spillover effect.