The Research On Counter-cyclical Monetary Policy Regulation In China

Recently, China's monetary policy has manifested the obvious counter-cycle characteristic, but still had some problems. Under the background of increasingly economic complexity and uncertainty, the paper has systematically studied the theoretical and practical issues related to the counter-economic cycle regulation, and how to complete the dynamic regulation and the optimization of monetary policy, in order to realizes the economical steady development.Based on the reorganization of the domestic and foreign scholars'research of counter-cyclical regulation and counter-cyclical monetary policy, the paper firstly has discussed the formation mechanism and the change tendency of Chinese economic cycle, and discussed the influence from monetary policy to the mechanism of formation of economic cycle. Then, it has analyzed the amplification of financial accelerator effect and the cycle of financial system to the pro-cycle fluctuations of financial system. And on this basis, it has constructed the basic structure of counter-cyclical monetary policy. In this framework, this paper has managed to construct the minimized quadratic loss function model of output gap and inflation volatility to study the means of counter-cyclical monetary policy. Then, based on state space model, the analysis of variance of China's monetary policy multiplier and its changes has determined the timing and intensity of regulation of counter-cyclical monetary policies. With impulse response function, it has analyzed dynamic relations between the ultimate goal of monetary policy and various monetary policy tools, and also improved the counter-cyclical monetary policy framework. Last, the paper has made some suggestions about improving counter-cyclical monetary policy in China.From the paper, we ca get the conclusion as below:(1) The empirical results show that:Firstly, the financial system has pro-cyclical; Secondly, financial accelerator effect and the financial system will expand the cyclical volatility of cyclical; Thirdly, monetary policy actions to implement the need for counter-cyclical and feasibility. (2) In the counter cycle monetary policy tool, the deposit reserve system's initiative, effectiveness and the signal function are quite good, the policy effect is strong; Rediscount policy's effectiveness and the signal function are good, but the initiative is bad; The open market operation's initiative, effectiveness, and feasibility are strong, but the signal function is weak. (3) China's counter cycle monetary policy's validity is strengthening gradually, but also waits for further enhancing. (4) The empirical results show that the effect of monetary policy is asymmetry, and the impact of tightening monetary policy on GDP, CPI is more significant than expansionary monetary policy. (5) The empirical results show that asset prices are leading indicators of economic performance. (6) In the situation of strict inflation goal system, the counter cycle monetary policy is more effective than both the consideration of inflation and output gap; The inflation goal system will be our country future choice. (7) The empirical results show that according to the change of monetary policy multiplier variance and the feedback information which collected in the economical movement it may conduct dynamic regulation of economic operation. (8) In the government of inflation aspect, the quantitative monetary policy instruments and price-based monetary policy instruments in the overall effect are not very different; But in stimulating economic growth, price-based monetary policy tool is better than quantity-oriented monetary policy Tool. (9)The quantitative monetary policy instruments impact on the economy in the short term, but the long-term effect is not obvious; price-based monetary policy instruments to play a role there is a certain delay, but in the long it has the obvious influence with the output and inflation.