The Analysis Of China Stock Markets Fluenced By International Oil Price Shock

As the most important raw materials of modern production and living, the oil price fluctuation affects a country’s political, military, economic and other aspects. Oil price not only affects a country’s macroeconomy, it will affect the stock market through a variety of channels. Since the 1970s, the world oil price fluctuated largely three times ever, the first oil crisis in the early 1970s, the second oil crisis of the late 1970 s, and the 21st century with booming in emerging markets and the financial crisis. Especially in the oil price fluctuation since the 21st century, not only the price volatility and lasted longer, the price is $100 for the first time. Therefore, the study on the impact of oil price fluctuations on China’s stock market is more profound meaning.This article obtains from the analysis of the international oil price fluctuations, and through the oil price volatility and its impact on the macro economy and stock market related literature, summarizes the six kinds of transmission mechanisms of oil price affect the stock market. Then use the combination of qualitative research and quantitative research methods, based on the transmission mechanism and three industry instead of the variable data processing and the empirical analysis of unearthed the impact of the international oil price fluctuations, and from the theoretical level to explore the possible economic meaning. Through the establishment of the structure of vector autoregressive model (SVAR), international oil price changes for different industries empirically effects are significant, and the orientation of influence.In this paper, the results show that the oil price shocks in the short term impact on the third industry is the largest, the first industry minimal. But in the long run, the shares price of the second industry affected by the oil price shocks will last the longest periods. The first industry will suffer a short period of time by oil price shocks. Moreover, oil price shocks has the best explanatory power to second industry. Expectations change will has certain prediction and guidance to markets. The change of supply, income, and exports will lag the change of the stock markets. The monetary policy and the stock index has significant inverse relationship. We think that to reduce the impact of oil price shocks on a country’s stock market, according to different target to choose the appropriate government policies. In addition in the long run to promote the oil pricing mechanism reform, we should promote the upgrading of industrial structure, establish and develop the oil futures market.