Study On The Credit Risk Of Commercial Loans For High-Tech Enterprises

With the developing of the new third board(An over-the-counter market for growthenterprises), major advances have been made in the construction of multi-level capitalmarket of China. Meanwhile, high-tech enterprises listed in the new third board enjoynew opportunities for development. Although the development of high-tech enterpriseshas great potential, it’s the existence of asset-light that result in huge risk for commercialbanks when facing high-tech enterprises loans. Among many risks that commercial banksface, credit risk is the first risks.According to the relevant theories of credit management which are applied intocommercial banks, this paper combines realistic conditions of high-tech enterprises,designs effective evaluation index system. In the process of selecting indices, the authorread a lot of literature about the credit risk of commercial banks. Finally, combining thepresent situation of high-tech enterprises, the author choose 17 financial indices anddivide them into four categories, and then select 94 companies’ correlative data as theselecting sample consisting listed companies and delisted companies. Although the 17 financial indices can reflect the overall situation of high-tech enterprises, there iscorrelation between them and using these indicators of research will lead to complicatethe analysis, even deviate from the correct conclusion. We carry principal componentanalysis and got 7 factors. It developed credible and effective commercial banking creditrisk financial factors and enriched the relevant researching theory over credit riskevaluation. After that, the paper uses seven factors as independent variables and weatherdefault or not as dependent variable and apply backward stepwise by SPSS software tobuild Logistic return mode. At the same time, this model can effectively judge out thepotential fell back probability in two years. Then we choose 21 listed companies as testsamples to prove the Logistic return model. The result has shown that the model hasbetter forecast and enriched and developed the model’s application in credit risk. We findout that benefit factor, asset turnover factor solvency factor and R&D factor can reflecthigh-tech enterprises’ credit risk condition remarkably, which need to attract the attentionof high-tech enterprises and commercial banks.In addition, the article has carried on the summary and some outlook on the results ofthe study has made. At the end of the article, future credit risk management ofcommercial banks for high tech companies, such as using the current financial index topredict the probability of default after two years later, learning advanced foreign metricmodels and standardizing the construction of bank database.