The Impact Of Aging Populayion On Economic Growth Of China Based On Analysis Of Extended Solow Model

Demographic factor is one of important determinants of economic development, comparing with the population scale, population structure makes greater impluence on economic growth. Scholars’ research focus on the relationship between population and economic has evolved from the population size impact to the dynamic changes of population structure impact on economic growth. Since the late 20th century aging population has become the global trend,the 21st century is the age of the population deepening century, countries around the world are concerned about the impact of population aging on the various aspects of human social life. With deepening level of aging population,the impact of aging on social development has become increasingly serious. With the background of low social production level and underdeveloped economic growment,Chinese aging population will bring profound changes to the economic and social development.This paper firstly discusses the present situation and main characteristics and development trend of China’s ageing population, then analyzes three mechanisms (labor supply, saving, human capital) of the aging population’s impact on economic growth. Then the paper establishes extended solow model and three-stage overlapping generation model containing the population age structure, provides a normative theoretical framework to analyze the impact of population age structure on economic growth, analyzes the dynamic effect of population age structure on economic balanced growth path, national output per capita, the total national output level. Then, this paper establishes one fixed effects panel model using data of 30 provinces (except for Xizang province) from 1997 to 2010 to comprehensivly analyze impact of population structure on the economic growth. Finally, this paper proposes policy suggestions to deal with the aging population based on empirical results.