The Research On The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Development In China

The 21st is the century of the population aging, and population aging has brought lots of difficulties and challenges to economic development and social progress to China. This paper finds that the relationship between population aging and economic development is very complex. Population aging has both a positive effect and a negative effect on economic development by summarizing scholars’research. However, this paper adopts system dynamics model and macroeconomic data to analyze the effect of population aging on economic development. Finally, this paper puts out some meaningful policy and suggestions to our country by simulation approach, which belongs to system dynamics.This study can be divided into four parts. Firstly, it introduces the background of population aging and made a brief introduction of the trends of world’s population aging and the situation of China’s population aging. This part includes methods and directions. Secondly, this paper describes concepts, that relating population aging. Old people, children, work-age population and elderly dependency ratio are included. Meanwhile, it summarizes some theories about economic development, which including demographic factors.According to these theories, we can make a system dynamics model. In addition, this chapter reviews some scholars’research about the population aging effects on economic development. Thirdly, after describing the basic knowledge of system dynamics, we make the system dynamics model about population aging and economic growth. Causal loop and system flow diagrams are included. And we show the methods of data selection and determination of parameters. Finally, we make full use of simulation system to check the effectiveness of some policies. We put out some reasonable proposals by analyzing and comparing the simulation results.The summary of each chapter is as follows:Chapter 1 shows aims, background, ideas and methods.Chapter 2 introduced some concepts that relating with population aging, as well as economic development theory. Then this chapter summarizes some scholars’ research about the relationship between population aging and economic development. And finally it makes a brief introduction of the basic knowledge about the system dynamics.Chapter 3 establishes the system dynamics model, including causal loop diagrams and system flow diagram. Meanwhile, in order to let readers know the model clearly, we show the methods of data selection and determination of parameters. At last, some important equations are listed.Chapter 4 tests the validity of the model and then analyzes the relationship between population aging and economic growth.Chapter 5 makes full use of simulation system to check the effectiveness of some policies. We put out some reasonable proposals by analyzing and comparing the simulation results.Chapter 6 makes a summary of the results and proposes the future direction of writing.