Research On The Effects Of RMB Exchange Rate On China’s Import And Export Trade

Exchange rate, as an important international financial indicators, has a direct impact on a country’s import and export trade. It is an important tool to realize a country’s economic balance. In 2005, since the yuan against the dollar exchange rate fluctuate, the impact on China’s foreign trade also fluctuate. Study of the influence of the RMB exchange rate changes on China’s import and export trade has important practical significance.This paper mainly studied after the revaluation in July 2005, RMB real exchange rate change on the impact of import and export trade in our country. Firstly introduces the research content related theoretical basis- elastic theory, secondly expounds the different stages of the development of exchange rate system, and analyzes on the impact of the appreciation of the yuan on foreign trade advantages and disadvantages, and then choose certain measurement analysis method, using eviews6.0 software was carried out on the monthly data regression analysis, respectively, the exchange rate changes on import and export trade in our country and the influence of the classification of goods import and export, and concluded that:(1) the import and export commodities in China is greater than the sum of absolute value of the elasticity of demand of Marshall- Lerner condition the critical value of 1, shows that China’s import and export trade condition can through depreciation real exchange rate(up) to improve; RMB real exchange rate fluctuation has an effect on our country’s import and export, embodied in currency movements and negatively correlated with the import, and export were positively correlated; Respectively according to the regression model can know, the national income and total imports and the classification of the imports of products were positively correlated, the income and of China’s total exports, and the classification of products exports also are related, and the RMB real exchange rate is the granger cause of import and export.(2) for different categories of goods in our country, the absolute value of import and export demand elasticity and some meet Marshall- Lerner condition, some not satisfied, and the exchange rate of different kinds of goods import and export of influence is also different. Finally, based on the above research conclusion,the paper will put forward relevant policy suggestions.