The Forecast Of Private Cars Ownership

With the rich material life, car has entered people’s life. More and more people have remaining money to buy cars. Car has been popularized, followed by the rise of the automobile industry.It also make China become the world’s car production and sales. The vigorous development of automotive industry played an important role in domestic economy. So the development of the automotive industry get more and more attention. China’s auto industry began to growth at the speed of explosive since 2002, which thanks to the rapid increase demand of private car. Due to the improved living standards and per capital disposable income, people are more yearning for a convenient way of life, the demand for private cars are rising rapidly. Combined with the falling of the average price of cars, the desire to buy cars are increased. With the remaining money is increased, people began to pay attention to the quality of life, so we wanted to buy a private car. Therefore, you can see that the car industry is changing in the direction of the private car.As a saying goes, a coin has two sides. When we move quickly into a society which private cars play the dominant role, various problems followed. Such as traffic congestion, petroleum energy, air pollution, noise pollution, frequent accidents, parking difficulties and so on. The article predicts the private car ownership in the coming years in our country by using exponential smoothing, ARIMA model and gray prediction. In order to provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of the city. Which has the important practical significance on the economy, environment and People’s daily life.This paper can be divided into the following five parts.Firstly, it introduces the history of the auto industry and the development of China’s automobile industry, then pointed out the trend of the development of automobile industry in our country and the problems existing, illustrates the significance of this article.Secondly, illustrates the Forecast theory, introduces the significance of the theory and method of prediction and forecast. Then introduces the influence of car ownership factors in detail, such as income, detailed introduces the classical theory of Keynes’s income and consumption.Thirdly, illustrate three kinds of method for prediction of private car ownership. They are exponential smoothing prediction method, ARIMA prediction method and gray prediction method. Introduce the steps of these three methods and the model test in detail.The forth is a comprehensive study for each model in a concise language refining, and it’s easy to understand. At the same time, the accuracy of the model by comparing the results to predict the specific results and its accuracy, so that private cars more perfect and research model with more credibility.The fifth is mainly about the predicted results analysis and give some suggestions for the problems.