Statistical Analysis And Modeling Research Of Fishery Economic Output Value In China

China is a big country of fishery and fishery has a history of thousands of years in China.With the continuous development of fishery industry,the total output of aquatic products has ranked first in the world for over 20 years,therefore having basically solved the difficulty of eating fish for Chinese.However,in the process of development,there are still many problems,such as serious destruction of fishery ecological resources,frequent occurrence of natural disasters and low scientific and technological content of fishery production.At present,the international economic situation is becoming more and more serious,and China as a large agricultural country,the above problems must be solved.Therefore,it is very important to adjust the investment direction and intensity of fishery economic development.Using the data of the total output value fishery economy in China and its 20 influential factors between 1993 and 2015,this paper has studied the correlation degree between the total output value of fishery economy and its 20 influential factors and the influence degree that these factors have with the total output value of fishery economy.Then,establishing corresponding model to predict the total output value of fishery economy,so as to provide a more scientific basis for the formulation of modernized fisheries policy.First of all,using the method of grey relational analysis to calculate grey correlation degree between the total output value of fishery economy and its 20 influential factors in 2003-2015.Making pairwise comparison to the correlation degree according to the calculation results,and then using AHP to create judgment matrix and checking its consistency,thus calculating the influence degree of each factor on the total output value of fishery economy,so as to establish a single grey hierarchy model.The results showed that marine fish production,import and export of aquatic products,the total number of effects of seawater,freshwater aquaculture production and processing products yield freshwater fry have great influence on the total output value of fishery economy,ranking the top five of influence degree,respectively 16.16%,14.12%,14.03%,8.41% and 6.55%,the sum of which reached 59.27%.Then,using the data of total output value of fishery economy between 1993 and 2015,of which the data in 1993-2010 were used as training samples,and the data in 2011-2015 were used as testing samples,this paper respectively established the three exponential smoothing model,grey prediction model and their combined model with the language of R,and evaluated the three models.The results showed that the mean relative error of the three models were 3.75%,3.69% and 3.68% respectively.Comprehensively analyzing the results and selecting the best combined model to predict the total output value of fishery economy of China in the future 5 years(2016-2020),results are as follows: 2607.028 billion yuan,2915.125 billion yuan,3254.271 billion yuan,3626.961 billion yuan and 4035.996 billion yuan.Finally,this paper put forward the prospect of the total output value of fishery economy in our country,and put forward some reasonable suggestions for the development of fishery economy in our country.