The Predictive Research Of Property Tax Levy On Real Estate Market

October23,2003, the Third Plenum of the Party pointed out:" when conditions are satisfied, the town carry out tax reform, within a given range for the implementation of a standardized real estate property tax." Six provinces carry out property tax pilot since2006, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing and so on. and in the second year the government added four pilot provinces. May2009,"comments on the work of deepening economic reform in2009" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, and again raised:"The property tax will be covered in-depth discussion, deepen the reform of the real estate tax system."Early March2014, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the Second Session of the Twelfth National People’s Congress:" Actively promote the estate tax legislation."Since China joined the WTO, the rapid economic development, but at the same time house-price boom. On the one hand, it may lead to the real estate market bubble, so that an increase in non-performing loans of financial markets; on the other hand, it might increase the gap between rich and poor,so that creating social crisis. Through fiscal policies can curb rising prices, the introduction of property tax, real estate tax system improvements, can effectively suppress excessive speculation in the real estate market, while reducing the tax burden and narrow the wealth gap.This paper selected15provinces(years2003-2012) selected for the study sample, using a combination of theoretical and empirical methods, the use of software to study main part of the article " The predictive research of property tax levy on real estate prices " to analyze and compare property tax levy different places, such as eastern central and western influence, the study had a significant impact on the real estate prices. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, first briefly describe the real background of our property tax, to clarify the significance of the topic; then examine two aspects of the property tax, studying foreign and domestic literature review, a clear article research methods, ideas and research framework; concludes innovation of this paper and shortcomings. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the property tax, including the basic ideas of Benefit Theory and New Theory, provide a theoretical basis for the research of this article. Theoretically, the research of property tax levy on real estate market. The third chapter is the mechanism of property tax on real estate market, firstly analyzes the composition of prices, real estate taxes to maintain stages; Secondly, use of the Laffer Curve supply and demand model to study of property tax on real estate prices; finally, explains levy property tax impact on the tax structure, local governments and other renters. The fourth chapter is empirical methods, the empirical analysis to select15cities model(years2003-2012), by quantitative analysis, estimated property tax impact on real estate prices, and compare property tax levy on different places, such as eastern, central and western influence. The fifth chapter is policy proposals and outlook, which is an important part of the article. Analyzes and summarizes the conclusions of this study, For the moment, put forward the corresponding measures and suggestions for property tax, as well as planned future research directions.In this paper, empirical studies have conclude:First, we selected a sample of15cities, the average selling price of residential explained variable, the proposed property tax levy, the average cost of housing costs and local per capita expenditure for the explanatory variables. In different places, there are structural differences on the relationship between property taxes and prices, the use of measurement software, the paper finally reach the property tax-prices fixed effects model with variable coefficients. Some provinces intend to levy property taxes could play an inhibitory effect on house prices, while some provinces there is no significant role. The regression results show that the proposed property tax levy elasticity developed regions, followed by the central region, and finally the western region.Then we selected three sub sample, namely, the five eastern provinces, the five central provinces and the five western provinces, the average selling price of residential explained variable, the proposed property tax levy, the average cost of residential costs and disposable income as explanatory variables. The use of F-test and Hausman test, eastern, central and western eventual establishment of a property tax-rates unchanged coefficient fixed effects model. Observe the eastern, central and western regression results, the model estimates the coefficient eastern region model is greater than the coefficient estimates in the middle, while the estimated coefficients of the model in the middle region is greater than the coefficient estimates in the western region model, the degree of influence that the property tax levy on real estate prices the maximum is the five eastern provinces, and then the five central provinces, finally, the five western provinces. It explained the higher level of economic development and people per capita disposable income they are, the more main role of the real estate market they have, real estate prices decided by supply and demand, thus driving up prices, property tax on the real estate market in different regions, the role of the degree is different, through the model analysis results, the impact can be drawn east> central> west.Whether the property tax levy can be pulled down prices, the paper empirical results show that15provinces intends to levy property tax on the price impact will play a role, in order to achieve the desired effect. On the one hand, to strengthen the awareness of the residents pay taxes, increase tax propaganda, so that we truly understand our tax from the people, giving back to people; On the other hand, to create the property tax levy condition, our real estate taxes can adapt to the property tax system, and to strengthen macroeconomic regulation.In this paper, an independent study on the real estate prices of property tax, and the current literature has a complementary role. However, due to the small sample in this article, the impact of a shorter time, my thesis research level and a series of factors, so developed conclusions inevitably inadequate. In addition, the paper will no property tax with the current price control policy for a detailed comparison, it did not consider the impact and effect of the property tax levy on prices caused by factors beyond. I hope that future research on the road can make up for these shortcomings, to arrive at more accurate conclusions.