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Measurement Study Of Regional Differences Of China's Real Estate Market Prices

Posted on:2013-02-10Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y L ZhuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119330371479148Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since 1998,China's real estate began the market-oriented,the real estate market has been rapiddevelopment, and made an irreplaceable contribution to the development of related industries,pulling the entire national economic growth and improving people's quality of life, to become animportant basis industry in China's national economic development.However,the real estate isclosely related to people's livehood, the price level of the real estate not only determines the healthdevelopment of the real estate industry itself but also impact on the development of relatedindustries,economic development, quality of life of residents, the country's financial security,especially will have an enormous impact on social equity and stability.It is noteworthy that recentyears the real estate price in some areas rose far more than other places.there are significantdifferences in regional real estate prices. Regional differences in real estate prices not only showsthat the difference of the real estate market in level of development in different regions, but alsoreflects the different parts of the level of economic development and people's quality of life, andexcessive gap would most likely affect the fair and stable of the whole society. Therefore, it haspractical significance that the depth analysis of the root causes of regional differences in real estateprices, in order to objective and accurate understanding of the real estate market development,regional imbalances is crucial for the healthy and orderly development of China's real estatemarket.Based on the above, this paper takes the real estate market development status as thebackground and the China'real estate market prices as the object of study .Base on the researchresult that exists nowdays,it analyzes the regional differences of China's real estate marketprice.Combining with China's real estate market conditions,this paper uses the measurementmethods to indentify the regional difference influencing factors of the China's real estate marketprices.On this basis ,building the index system of China's real estate market to redivision theChina's real estate market,it uses micro-econometric methods to empirical test the regional ,thephase variation and volatility characteristics of China's real estate market .the main contents andconlusions of this parper are as follows:First of all, this paper analysis the current development of China's real estate market and theregional differences in evolution of real estate prices.Since the market-orient of China's real estatemarket,China's real market has rapid development in investment and demand aspects,however thereal estate prices shows significant regional differences. The real estate prices in the eastern part areobviously higher than the real estate price in central and westen regions, especially the real estateprices in Beijing and the Shanghai are significantly higher than other provinces.there are obviouslydifferences in the estate,central and westen regions real estate prices.Secondly, it is important to screen the factors affect the regional differences of real estate prices. First of all, we theoretical analyze the income levels, economic fluctuations, the level ofland supply, the size of population, the level of credit scal and the urban scale.Based on thetheoretical anaylsis,this paper used the stepwise regression techniques to analyze the factors ofaffecting the real estate prices ,resulting regional differences according to the reality of China's realestate marker.it carefully judges and recongnize the influencing factors of the regional difference inreal estate markets.The econometric analysis showed that at this stage in China's real estate marketconditions, income levels, economic fluctuations, the level of land supply and credit scale levelhave a significant impact on the on the regional differences in real estate prices. The size ofpopulation and urban size have no significant impact on the regional differences of China's realestate price at this stage.Thirdly, According to the different level of development state of China real estate market,based on the screened real estate different influencing factors, using the cluster analysis to divideinto different regions. Based on the divided regions, the application of spatial panel data modelfrom 1999 to 2010 examined the regional differences characteristics and empirically tested theimpact of various factors on the regional differences of real estate prices.The empirical resultsindicate there are certain space linkages between real estate prices. The income level of thedeveloping real estate market has higher impact than the high-growth markets. The real estateprices of region with a high level economic development are easily affected by economicfluctuation. The land supply has no significant effect to the real estate prices of economicallydeveloped regions.The real estate prices of economic less-development regional has higher degreeof dependence on the credit scal. Therefore, the empirical results provide a realistic basis to themacro-control of the regions real estate market. The main reason of affecting real estate prices indifferent regions are different as well as there are big difference that realted factors have differentinfluence degree,so the local government and relevant departments should take full account of thelocal real estate market conditions to make real estate market regulation policy.Fourly, we use the application of structural change theory to determine the structural changespoint of the real estate price, based on the structural changes point of the real estate price the paperdetermined the real estate market development phasing from 1999 to 2010. Then applying the paneldata model based on structural changes to profoundly reveal the income levels, fluctuations in theeconomy situation, the level of land supply and the credit scale influenced the regional real estateprices to from dynamic and phase characteristics.The conclusion is as follows: the real esate priceshas two structural points,2005Q1and 2008Q4.According to China's real estate market is divied intothree stages,the three stages is also China's real estate prices from moderate growth shift to rapidgrowth then to moderate growth,and the difference of real estate prices in the three stages becomeincreasingly evident.Income levels in the three periods has mostly impacted on the low level realestate market.High level of real estate development area has always been the most sensitive toeconomic fluctuations.Land supply influences the real estate market prices in the early stage,butalong with the deepening of market-oriented,land supply has no influence to the high leveldevelopment real estate market.in the rapid development stage of real esatate market,the credit sizehas no significan influence in the high level real esteat market. Therefore, the local government and relevant departments should take full account of the dynamics and phase change characteristics ofthe real estate prices, paying attention to the timeliness of real estate control policy.Finally, the different regions as the research object, the application of panel data cointegrationand Granger causality test based on the panel error correction model econometric analysis methodof this paper examines the real estate price fluctuations and fluctuations in income, economicfluctuations, fluctuations in the supply of land and the size of creditbetween short-and long-termrole in the volatility characteristics. The empirical results show that: significant regional differencesof China's real estate price fluctuations in line. Whether it is the long-run equilibrium, short-termfluctuations, income fluctuations and economic fluctuations can be caused by various regional realestate price fluctuations, the size of credit only in the real estate price fluctuations on the long-termland supply in the real estate price fluctuations on the short-term ; the volatility of real estate pricesin the long-run equilibrium and short-term fluctuations in conditions can cause fluctuations indifferent regions of the size of credit, in the long term, real estate price fluctuations in the long termreal estate market in level of development in regions with low income levels have an impact notimpact on economic fluctuations and fluctuations in the supply of land, real estate pricefluctuations in different regions, in the short term, real estate price fluctuations will not affect thereal estate development in the middle levels of economic fluctuations, and can only be caused byfluctuations in the supply of land in the region . Therefore, in the development of real estate controlpolicy requires a combination of real running status of the real estate market around thedevelopment of effective real estate control policy.The conclusions of the study in this article contribute to more clearly understand thecharacteristics of the regional differences of China's real estate market prices in the process ofChina's real estate market, screening of different factors affect the degree of variation. Ultimately,in order to ensure the healthy and orderly development of China's real estate market, localconditions to develop the regional real estate price control policies in China, to maintain thebalanced development of the regional real estate market, there is some reference.
Keywords/Search Tags:real estate market price, regional differences, structural changes, spatial correlation
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