Research On Demand Forecast Management Of J Cosmetic Company

In today’s consumer goods industry, J Cosmetics Company must face the variability of demand, limited production resources and supply capacity in the external environment, to survive in the fierce market competition. In order to balance production and sales, supply chain is facing a huge challenge to ensure no shortage or excessive production. Improvement of demand management will bring great benefit including fundamentally improve customer satisfaction, capacity utilization, shorten new product development cycle and reduce inventory, and ultimately gain business profitability and return on investment and so on.In this paper, the modern supply chain sales and operations planning and demand management theory, the first historical data collection J business unit cleaned and analyzed to identify the real needs of the summary, and then use demand forecasting methods and statistical techniques to establish level and trend forecasting model and seasonal model a total of eight two categories of model validation and correction model to find the model that best meet the development trend and establish predictive accuracy KPI evaluation system to assess the predictive quality. On the other hand, collaboration with the dealer inventory information provides access to downstream supply chain information which will enhance information transparency of the supply chain and improve forecast accuracy.J Cosmetics Company’s demand forecast management not only provides a baseline for the next steps which are the enterprise supply and operational plan, but also a good example for the needs of the relevant FMCG forecast analysis.