| Limited historical demand data is a general situation in Chinese enterprise, whichresults from short developing time for information, quick products update, andconcentration level is still low. For example, low developing of information and quickproducts update would bring about missing of historical demand data, low developinglever of information would result in poorer integrity or inaccuracy of historical demanddata, all of the above phenomenon poses immense challenges to demand managementand inventory management. The paper study at intermittent demand in limited historicaldemand data, intermittent demand is stochastic demand, in related with productionoperation, inventory management and service level. Limited demand information ismainly caused by two reason: on is the status quo of China’s enterprises,the short-timedevelopment and low level of enterprise information caused data distortion, missing andincomplete; on the other hand, intermittent demand for materials are with slowconsumption, long occurrence interval, large numbers of zero values in the demand dataresulting in the actual amount of available historical information is extremely limited.The paper combined demand forecast and inventory management, study intermittentdemand forecasting and inventory control problem in two different types of limiteddemand information, combined with the actual situation of enterprise, we clearly defineand classic intermittent demand material type and material demand characteristics, thenselect intermittent demand tactics and inventory control strategy for different types ofdemand material. This paper mainly includes the following two aspects:1, Take electricity demand materials as study object, consider intermittent demandforecasting and inventory control problem in the known demand distribution form withthe unknown parameter information of repeat the Newsboy model. On the materialdemand characteristics, classify the form of demand distribution, and then identifydemand distribution and demand parameter information. Then determine intermittentdemand inventory control problems in the different inventory holding costs, shortage costand lead time, develop the optimal (s, S) inventory control model. 2, Take consider of another type of limited demand information situation, theintermittent demand forecasting and inventory control problem in the known demanddistribution form with the unknown parameter information of repeat the Newsboy model.The known historical consumption data are divided as two sequence, and forecastdemand respectively, we verify that the method can more fully meet this kind ofintermittent demand forecasting problem. Then select the optimal inventory controlstrategy based on the characteristics of material needs.It come to the conclusion that Taking into account of limited demand information, inconsidering of the above two different types. The intermittent demand forecast model andinventory control strategy can get better prediction accuracy, and at the same time, itensure the validity of the inventory control.The innovations of the paper can be summarized into two aspects: First, Most of theprevious literatures concentrated on forecasting single intermittent demand of one kind ofsupplies by single method. investigated subjects of single type or considering multiplesupplies but fail to considered different demand, fail to described the and fit demanddistribution characteristics of the material, lead to limited scope and application effect. Inthe paper, intermittent demand was divided into two conditions limited demandinformation: One is the known demand distribution without demand data, the othercondition is the known demand data without demand distribution. Second, the previousresearches neglected the limited demand information in intermittent demand forecast,while the short developing time, and unceremonious maintenance exist in the historicaldata results in information default and distortion which was widely existed in domesticenterprises. In this study, the intermittent demand forecasting was modeled in the limitedhistorical demand data, which conform to the domestic enterprises, and also help to directenterprises demand forecast and inventory control. |
PDF Full Text Request