Research On The Fuzzy Decision Model For Early Termination Responsibility Allocation Of BOT Projects

As enter the21st century, infrastructure and public utilities in China show the trend that the scale of investment increasing and Investment increased rapidly. Due to the restrictions of financial resources of the government, management level and technical capacity, the construction of infrastructure and public utilities in China is falling into bottleneck. In recent years, investment system innovation in China constantly goes deeper. As BOT mode widely used in China, contradiction between huge capital investment and financial shortage of government has been effectively alleviated. However, being affected by various kinds of factors inside and outside and lacking of experience, the operation conditions of a lot of projects do not perform as well as expected. Because early termination of BOT projects occurred frequently, early termination decision has received widespread attention in theory and practical circle. Identification of influence factor and responsibility allocation is the basis or foundation of the early termination negotiation. This will affect the interests between governments and private capital. Moreover, it will influence the development of BOT project as well.Based on above, this dissertation carries out research on the model for early termination responsibility allocation of BOT projects.Firstly, reviewing literatures concerned early termination of BOT projects, the concept of early termination is defined, while researches on influence factor and responsibility allocation are categorized. It provides theoretical basic for the construction of model for early termination responsibility allocation of BOT projects.Secondly, this dissertation generalizes14project cases which encountered early termination in China in which particularly analyzes7typical cases by multi-case study method, identifies9key influence factors, including public opposition, lack of government performance, requisition by government, violation by Project Company, policy and law reform, competition among similar projects, delays in construction, poor product or service quality and refusal to pay the fee by users. Then, the internal relations among these factors and their characteristics are discussed.Lastly, model for early termination responsibility allocation of BOT projects is established by fuzzy decision theory. On the basis of principles of responsibility allocation, the three evaluation system about the influence factor on responsibility allocation is established. An evaluation index system including two categories of influence factors control and loss sharing. Two evaluation indicators include six sub-indexes such as cognition degree, control capacity and control cost. Three evaluation indicators include sixteen sub-indexes. All the indicators are discussed carefully. Weights of evaluation at all levels are determined by triangular fuzzy number and AHP. Then, an overall evaluation results are obtained by a hierarchical fuzzy overall evaluation. Finally, applies the model to Shenzhen Wutongshan Tunnel. Evaluation process is introduced, and evaluation results are analyzed.