Study On Compensation Model For PPP Early Termination Of Toll Roads

The toll road is one of the earliest applications of the PPP model.According to the? 13 th Five-Year modern comprehensive transportation system development plan ?,China's investment in the field of transport infrastructure to more than 15 trillion from 2015 to 2020.Under the influence of economic downward pressure and tax reform,the growth of our government's income has slowed down,and the fiscal deficit is expanding.At the same time,the financing liabilities of local governments in China are widespread and even large.It can be foreseen that in the future,more and more toll highway projects will be built with PPP model in the future.However,many PPP projects are not ideal,mainly because the PPP project itself has the characteristics of high investment,uncertain revenue,long concession and many risks.Many projects can't continue after the risk of the project,and are forced to choose to terminate the project ahead of time.Both domestic and international guidelines point out that compensation allocation is the most important step for early termination of PPP projects.At present,these guidelines do not give an early termination compensation model for flow-based operations.This paper takes toll road PPP project as the research object,aiming at the market value of item company,the risk identification,evaluation and sharing,and game compensation and sharing problem in the operation of toll roads.First of all,through the literature review,we study the early termination of PPP project compensation.The research scope of this paper is based on the market value of the operation period toll road PPP project.Aiming at the problem of estimating the market value of PPP project,this paper proposes and analyzes the use of free cash flow to estimate the market value,and gives the free cash flow formula for the toll road PPP project,which is used for the early termination of the compensation allocation calculation.Secondly,the risk management of the toll road PPP project is studied Nine common operational risks are identified by analysis of 11 typical cases;Based on enterprise financial risk management,the relationship between risk factors and project operation data is established.Then,the least squares regression is performed on the operation data;According to the analysis of partial least-squares regression results,the contribution of each risk factors to the project is given.Then,aiming at the problem of assigning the market value of PPP project based on the contribution of risk factors,the feasibility of using the Shapley value of cooperative game is demonstrated through literature review.Two Shapley value models of "income distribution" and "cost sharing" are designed.The feasibility of the two models is discussed according to the actual operation,and the "cost sharing" Shapley value is chosen to calculate the compensation.The cost contribution of the government and the enterprise is apportioned.Finally,according to the contribution value of the cost contribution of the government and enterprise and the market value of the PPP project,the results of the early termination of the compensation for the PPP project of the toll road are calculated.The compensation model is simulated with the Mei Guan expressway project.The final calculation results and risk analysis show that the compensation model is consistent with the actual situation,and the risk analysis is also consistent with the actual situation of the annual report.