The Empirical Study On The Influence Factors Of Short-term International Capital Flow Of China

Since the21st century,the relationship among the countries all over the world becomes more and more closely.With the rapid development of science and technolongy,it makes the global village possible.The world economic integration, financial maket globalization trend is obvious. Conveniently,international capital is in the east with large scale and higher capital flow speed in the international financial market,becoming one of the important links between economic tie and countries.Of course, it also influence the established powerhouse and make a profound impact on emerging economics.Our country is one of the biggest developing countries in the world.In recent decades, the pace of development for all attention of the world, especially in recent years, other countries due to the economic crisis in all sorts of difficulties,make our country more to become the world’s emerging locomotive of economic development, becoming the home to one of the international capital.Howerer, some of problems in the development of economy in our country also showed a large number of short-term international capital flows the negative effects of more and more significance.Expanding continuously imported inflation,the real estate price bubble,virtual economy development speeding,monetary policy doesn’t effect, lack of speculative capital control,a strengthening RMB yuan and so on.Considering the effects of short-term international capital flows to China, we have to face how to directly.control the short-term international capital flows,how to reduce the negative effec on short-term international capital flows,which has become an important issue for Chinese scholars today.This article hope by referencing the traditional economics and finance theory,combined with modern some for short-term international capital flows research literature,a more comrehensive combing the historical trace of the international capital flows to capital flows in the future research.In addition, this paper using the succession of traditional financial theory and appropriate development at the same time,further combined with the status of China’s macro economy make some empirical analysis,and hope to be able to find out the special factors affecting the short-term internatinal capital flows and laws,for the development of traditonal theory to do a little.This article mainly includes the following three aspects: The first part,the relevant theoretical summarys about short-term international capital flows,and reference. Short-term international capital flow is an important form of international capital flow, the factors that affect international capital flows in theory should be the influence factors of short-term international capital flows.From the earliest to the latest international trade theory of financial crisis theory, the real economy development speed,the interest rate differentials and capital markets revenue is recognized by the international capital flows several main factors.Combined with current situation in China,due to the imperfect capital market in China is still in the state,its development speed and potential markets should not be ignored.So this article outside the selection more than a few common variables,also joined the capital market development speed this variable and combined with related theories and literature analysis.The second part, introduce the history and the present situation of our country’s short-term international capital flows.Though the relevant data and documents summarized the short-term international capital flows appear surge flow scale,direction and changeable characteristics.And the important and export way in addition to normal import export outside the currency freely convertible under the current account,using false trading, import and export of misrepresenting,so-called remittances and donations.False capital verification under the capital account, false contracts and other functions equity investment funds, foreign or institutions in different branches of domestic and overseas money transfer.Implementation of short-term international capital inflow or outflow are difficult to regulatory control abnormal way such as underground.Banks are also increased the size of short-term international capital flows in our country.The third section, the empirical part select exchange differences (EX), interest rate difference(R_CPI), the speed of China’s economic development (GROW), the capital market yields (INDEX) and the degree of development of China’s capital market (REP) as a study of short-term international capital flows factors.Using related econometric methods such as multiple regression model,GRANGER causality test and VAR model get the conclusion that Exchange rate factors are currently effect on short-term international capital flows in China and the most important, but the degree of development of capital market and the rate of return are also influenced it, China’s economic growth rate and the interest rate differential factors did not reflect the effect of the corresponding perfectly. Finally according to the empirical study results and the previous theoretical analysis combined with the knowledge of game theory put forward some policy suggestions:first, improving the exchange rate formation mechanism, increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate; second, speeding up the marketization of interest rates appropriate, regulating function recovery rate channel;third,to further improve the capital market system, effectively play the function of capital market;fourth, strengthening risk supervision of short-term international capital, increasing the cost of speculative capital to make China’s short-term international capital flows real service to our country’s economic development.