Jujube Industry Risks Analysis And Research On Forewarning Of Xinjiang

With the planting scale of jujube trees growing, supply of Xinjiang jujube increases quickly in recent years. From analyzing the natural conditions of Xinjiang jujube tree-growing areas, the development space of jujube tree-growing scale, jujube tree-growing areas distribution, plant technologies, influence on ecological environment and social benefit, industrialization level and the aspect on agricultural output, we generalize the feature of Xinjiang jujube industry status. The industry risks that Xinjiang jujube tree-growing areas faced at present are regional plant structure risk, agricultural industry structure risk, costs and benefits imbalance risk, price risk, enterprise growth risk, service systems imperfect, sale risk in brand inadequate maintenance, a unmarketable risk about transportation, the growing difficulty for attracting investment, natural disaster, and so on. As the too quickly increasing output of Xinjiang jujube is one of the main reasons, this article give analysis for the lag influence’s level on the growth of Xinjiang jujube trees’ planting scale to the increase of Xinjiang jujube supply aspect on this risk, forecast Xinjiang jujube output. We use Almon polynomial distribution lag model (Almon PDL) to analyze the lag influence’s level on the growth of jujube trees’planting scale to the increase of Xinjiang jujube supply. We put an assumption which the planting scale of jujube trees remains unchanged, we could adopt Almon polynomial distribution lag model to analyze the contribution levels of the newly increased trees to Xinjiang jujube output in every term.By the empirical analysis, we can see that the lag influence term which the planting scale of Xinjiang jujube trees has effect on the growth of Xinjiang jujube supply is seven years. That is to say that the second year is the first term after the jujube trees have planted and the influence which the planting scale of Xinjiang jujube trees has effect on the growth of Xinjiang jujube supply. It is satisfied with the bearing period features of jujube trees. Along with the time growth after jujube trees planted, the influence will become stronger and stronger until the output remains a stable situation of full bearing period. On this basis, we can use the different lag influence’s levels the jujube trees’planting scale’s growth to on the growth of jujube output to forecast the next three years’ output of Xinjiang jujube exactly. Without considering the premise of the high-speed increase of the jujube trees planting scale, we can forecast Xinjiang jujube’s output in the next bearing period. That is to say that we can forecast jujube output from2012to2017. Based on the relationship of long-term coefficient between jujube trees planting scale and the jujube output, we can also forecast the long dated output of jujube.From what has been discussed above, we can use correlation analytical method and the peak valley correspondence analytical method, chose18indexes about supply and demand as the base forewarning indexes system. Point at the warnings situation, we should found a dynamic-control system which integrates with risk compensation fund, government referential price and enterprise alliance. From medium and long term macro-control, we should vigorously develop organic red dates, strengthen management after the order, accelerating brand building, perfect the agricultural service systems, regulate the structure of planting, optimize industry layout. At the same time, the government should take care to protect microcosmic enterprise, accelerate breed local bibcock enterprise.