Local Government Debt Risk Research In China

In2011and2013, the national audit office announced the national government debt audit results. Data show that compared with the local government debt in China increased by48.22%at the end of2010, the average annual growth of24.11%.Three times in2011,2012,2014budget law amendment, focus on under the premise that local government debt risk minimization model of debt.On October2,2014of the state council general office issued "the state council on strengthening the opinions of the local government debt management"."Opinions" requirement to perfect our local government debt financing mechanism. So, the problem of the current local government debt risk is more and more attention by people.This paper from the risk recognition, risk assessment, risk control three levels of local government debt risk problems in China were studied. In the level of risk recognition, from the perspective of the related concepts and literature at home and abroad, analyzes the present situation and causes of local government debt risk; In the level of risk assessment, measures for China’s local government debt risk; The final risk control level, to our country local government debt risk management improvement Suggestions are put forward.This paper argues that China’s local government debt risk can mainly from the aspects of financial system, the government behavior, economic development, fiscal policy and debt management system. On the basis of risk recognition, according to the journal of the national government debt audit results released by the audit and released by the provinces and cities "local government debt audit results", use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to measure the local government debt risk of our country. Measurement results show that at present, China’s local government debt risk in the general level, but the existing bias trend to the dangerous level.Finally according to the time dimension in advance, matter and afterwards stages, for the risk management of local government debt in China are put forward. Advance stage should pay attention to improve the debt management mechanism and risk early warning system. Things stage should pay attention to the debt capital operation management, perfecting the supervision and restriction mechanism and government debt management behavior audit supervision mechanism. Later stage should pay attention to information disclosure mechanism of local government debt.