Analysis Of The China Construction Bank Stock Investment Value

With the rapid development of China’s securities market and continuous improvement, from the point of view of macroeconomics, securities investment has become an important part of our national economy; from the micro economy, securities investment activities also play an increasingly important role in people’s life, becoming an important option for people in finance and investment. At the same time, another industry closely linked with people’s life is the banking industry, and as a financial intermediary, the profits of banks are high relatively. So, the investment value of banking stocks is obviously. In recent years, the adjustments of national macro policy make it gradually relaxed into the banking industry threshold, and vigorously promote the development of the non-banking financial industry, which bring some certain impacts to the development of the banking industry. Analysis of the investment value of listed banks have important practical significance.China Construction Bank as one of five China’s traditional major state-owned banks, has large scale and high degree of industry recognition. In this paper, we choose China Construction Bank as the main object of study, analyse the investment value of China Construction Bank, and estimate the intrinsic value of sixteen listed banks in China. Mainly we get the evaluated intrinsic value of sixteen listed banks by AHP and factor analysis, and get the intrinsic value of China Construction Bank by the multiple linear regression.The first chapter is the introduction, the first part introduces the background, purpose and significance of the research; the second part introduces domestic and international literature review of stock investment value analysis; the third part introduces the research thoughts of the whole article.The second chapter mainly elaborates the analysis of stock investment value and the stock investment value evaluation method, including the model of stock valuation of traditional introduced respectively absolute valuation model and relative valuation model.The third chapter is the first key content of this paper, the empirical analysis of the stock’s investment value of China Construction Bank. First on the relationship between stock price and the stock intrinsic value, we use time series data of China Construction Bank, some financial indexes that reflect the intrinsic value as dependent variables and stock price as variables, to perform the multivariate linear regression. So that we can get the multiple linear regression model which can estimate the intrinsic value of China Construction Bank, and calculate the current stock intrinsic value and give the investment advice; Using the traditional evaluation method-price earnings ratio, we get the stock intrinsic value assessment, in contrast to previous findings, testing the correctness of the multivariate linear regression model. Then through the financial index system to reflect the intrinsic value of listed banks, we use the sixteen listed banks in2012and2013annual data to carry out the factor analysis, then we get the assessed stock intrinsic value ranking, and the position of China Construction Bank in the same industry;The fourth chapter is the second key content of this paper, we forecast the stock investment value of the China Construction Bank in the future. We analyze in three respects according to the macroeconomic situation, the industry environment and the internal company, and predict the future5years’financial indicators. Finally, we put the financial indicators to the multiple linear regression model to get the stock intrinsic value in the future5years and its development situation.The fifth chapter is the conclusions and recommendations. We give the short-term and the long-term investment advice to investors, according to the research conclusion; also we provide this paper’s possible innovation and the deficiency.The research and the analysis of this paper show that, the current stock intrinsic value of China Construction Bank which is evaluated by the multivariate linear regression model, is a little higher than the current stock price, so in the short term we suggest to buy the stock carefully; The stock intrinsic value evaluated by the predicted financial index is going to increase in the future5years, and in this rising trend, we give the suggestion to buy the stock in the good macroeconomic situation; while be prudent to buy the stock in the steady economy and bad economy in medium and long term.