Study On Port Throughput Prediction Of ShanDong Province

With the development of globalization and the unremitting national economic growth, increasing emphasis is attached to transportation industry. As the window of exporting trade, coastal ports undoubtedly become the key point national development which play important roles in promoting the development of relative industries as well as vigorously stimulating the mainland economic growth. Shangdong Province,a large port province, owning several important ports of the Bohai Sea ports group, has make port industry its pillar industry. However, because of irrational construction and many other problems, there are quite a few issues remain to be settled:excessive competition caused by the unduly many number of ports,the over capacity of large ports vs the narrow survive of small ports, the casual ports construction, contradiction between the daily increasing handing capacity and decreasing usable sham shorelines. Therefore, how to distribute the resources, orient the ports development and berths construction have key point of Shangdong Province ports industry.Port handling capacity is an important reference index to measure a port’s operation capacity. The forecast of handling capacity is the basis of port programming and berth construction, and at the same time, serves as the guidance of integration and distribution of resources. In consideration of the slight even negative growth in some southern ports, appropriate and rational forecast of Shangdong Province ports handling capacity provides important reference for the development and construction of Shangdong ports.Many as the forecast methods exist, they all coexist with according limitations. Therefore, combined method is take in this paper to forecast the handling capacity of Shangdong ports. Upon the comparison among several main forecast methods, ES method and neural network method are chosen. Analysis is made to determine the factors affecting handling capacity. Then Holt model and RBF model are built to respectively forecast the aggregate handling capacity of all the Shangdong Province ports.The two models, in the end, are combined on the basis of weighted average, the result of which is used to make a forecast about Shangdong ports handling capacity. After the comparison among the forecast results of the three models, the combined model is superior than the other two models. Through the forecast of the combined model, the conclusion that the handling capacity of Shangdong Province ports in the next five years will remain the tendency to increase is made. In addition, relative suggestions are also put forward in the end.