The Empirical Analysis Of Scale And Corresponding Risk Of Chinese National Debt

Most government in the world have taken intervention policy to reverse economic cycle since the Keynes revolution, that is, fiscal policy and monetary policy.However, the national debt is not only a main tool of fiscal policy, but also a main tool of monetary policy, so it has a great influence on the flourishing and decline of the economic development of a country.The utilization of national debt has led to a rapid growth of economy in some country, but debt crisis result from national debt in other country, thus it can be seen that the national debt is a "double-egged sword".The scale of national debt has expanded rapidly and the amount of fiscal deficit has increased year by year since the national debt was reissue in our country in1981.In consideration of the national debt crisis occurred from Latin America to Europe, and from Europe to the USA, many Chinese scholars began to pay attention to our national debt problem, especially to the optimal scale of national debt and the corresponding crisis, in order to prevent the generation of debt crisis, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the macro-economy.However, the research about national debt did by domestic and foreign scholars has stopped at the qualitative research and semi quantitative research of the scale and crisis of national debt for a long time, and there is no explanation about what the national debt scale is the optimal scale, and how much is the corresponding crisis.Accurate quantitative method was taken to research the scale of our national debt in this paper, although the accurate number could not be got by the quantitative method, but the conclusion could be a reference which has not a big error.Research idea is as the follow:firstly, calculating the PDF of the government receipts of China by non-parametric and semi-parametric method, and the methods are KDE and GMM.And then, the PDF which is closest to the real PDF of the government receipts was found out by the method of Monte Carlo.Finally, the optical scale of national debt and the corresponding quantitative level of crisis were determined according to the PDF of the government receipts.The paper was divided into the followed four parts:The first part is the introduction.The background, research purpose and research significance, the value of this paper were all described briefly in this part.Fiscal deficit has not only brought the development of global economy, but also brought the global debt crisis, in such a situation, the purpose of the research is that the conclusion could be referenced objectively by manager to manage national debt, in order that the national debt could play a good role in regulating macro-economy, and bring a sustainable and health development of Chinese economy.The second part is the literature review.The shortage of the research about scale of national debt and corresponding crisis was founded out by reviewing and summarizing the domestic and foreign study about national debt.Accurately studying about national debt from the fully quantitative side was proposed in this paper, so as to enrich the research did by domestic and foreign scholars.The third part is an overview of the development of the national debt,which found that scale of national debt has increased year after year in our country,and was accompanied with increased risk of default.Building the model in the fourth part.Because that many scholars tacitly approved the PDF of government receipts as the normal distribution when they cited this variable into their model, so test was made to verify that the PDF of Chinese government receipts was not a accurate normal distribution firstly, and then, the methods of KDE and GMM were taken to calculate the PDF of Chinese government receipts, and then, which is closest to the real PDF of Chinese government receipts was found out by the method of Monte Carlo,finally, the scale-risk and risk-scale model was built.The fifth part is the practice significance of the model,nearly30years data of the scale of Chinese national debt was putted into the model,and then calculate the corresponding risk of debt default, and the trend graph of debt default risk was made.The policies of Chinese national debt management were given in the sixth part.