The Generator Integrated Resource Planning Model And Application Considering The Efficiency Power Plant

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, energy shortage and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent. In power system planning, the development of conventional and renewable energy should be paid attention to. Furthermore, the development of demand side resource is considered to be more important. When the economy and electric power develop to a certain stage, power demand could not have been increasing rapidly, but slowly, presenting a saturated state. This thesis establishes a model of power generation integrated resource planning based on saturation load forecasting. In this thesis, concentrating on the research and application of model and other issues, by means of optimization theory, analysis of demand side response theory, the electricity market theory, mathematical modeling theory and method of uncertainty, the study of clean electricity in order to adapt to the new situation with conventional fossil generation resources optimization model and method was carried out.First, the relevant backgrounds such as the current situation of China’s generation resource, saturated load forecasting methods and the research status of environment cost and integrated resource planning are summarized in this thesis, the research significance of the integrated generation resource planning that consider efficiency power plant is analyzed. Then made generating and environment cost accounting of conventional generation resource, expounded the theory of efficiency power plant and evaluated the benefit of the efficiency power plant.Then, based on the research of saturated load characteristic and analysis technologies, this thesis built equivalent weight recurrence combination forecast model base on Logistic, improved gray Verhulst model and Multi-dimensional. Use software SPSS and GTM3.0to forecast example area with three methods, then made combination forecast and analyzed the saturated time and quantity.After analyzed and calculated the environment cost of coal power through generation pollution emission, this thesis took integrated resource planning considering efficiency power plant as main line. Took practical solution as core, combined the cost research of power source and saturated load forecasting results, built integrated resource planning model considering efficiency power plant. This model took supply side and demand side into consideration at the same time, the efficiency power plant effect after demand side management and constraint conditions such as energy saving and emission reduction, system reliability are also considered. Based on the inertia weight of the particle swarm algorithm, use Matlab software programming to solve the implementation planning function. Utilizing the predicting data and the original data of the power supply in S region, analyzed comparatively for power planning in the region to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model, so as the concrete methods of the. resource planning Provided advices on demand side management and efficiency power plant to form the long term generation integrated resource configuration.Finally, by using labVIEW software and ACCESS database, thesis built power plant resource planning platform considering power efficiency with G language. After verification, this platform can realize the input and output of data and form report using visual way, realized the computational intelligence and operability.