Research And Prediction Of CPI In Beijing

The Consumer Price Tndex (CPl) is a reflection of the statistical index of consumers’ purchasing power,which is closely related to the living standards of the residents,and performs the trend and extent of prices of goods and services.Beijing as the political,economic and cultural center of China, has a variant regional characteristics of CPl fluctuation.The research of the Beijing CPI fluctuation pattern and its internal driving force has a great social and economical significance.This paper use monthly short-term time series CPF data of Beijing from1978January to2013December,and long-term time series CPI data from2001to2013,analyse the variation characteristics of Beijing CPI by consulting the fluctuation of sub-indices including prices of food, clothing,real estate etc. Based on the description and analysis, according to the short-term data, to a result that the food and housing are the main driving factors, this paper separately uses the seasonal ARIMA model and vector auto regression model model to forecast the time series CPI data of recent year and2014year of Beijing, the result that the CPI of Beijing is stabilized in2014。At the end,this paper from the theoretical and empirical analysis using the method of integral, taking account of the characteristics of the consumption structure of Beijing, has find that the special change trend and causes of Beijing city in recent years and2014. Through the prediction for CPI in Beijing will provide a decision-making basis for the policy makers in Beijing City, to improve the city of Beijing, promote the economic order and public life level has a certain theoretical of significance.