Research On The Influence Of Forward-looking Information Of Chinese Listed Companies On The Accuracy Of Analysts’ Forecast

With increasing stakeholder information needs, simply reflect only the financial operations of the company’s history and non-financial information has been unable to meet the stakeholders have an accurate understanding of the future needs of the company’s current situation and predict the performance of the company. In contrast, the forward-looking information is more timely and relevant, being investors and other information users attention and favor. However, the lack of forward-looking information can be forensic nature, difficult to quantify the characteristics also make it difficult for the average investor use. Securities analysts have extensive financial expertise were high hopes. Forward-looking information to explore the impact of analyst forecasts for improving disclosure and regulatory system, improve the quality of information disclosure of listed companies, and promote the healthy development of the industry analyst significance.Based on reading the relevant literature, worked out a set on manual collection and disclosure of forward-looking information to measure the evaluation system, which is different from the past, in most cases, index or qualitative methods to measure the forward-looking information disclosure quality, the paper The forward-looking information "quantity", "quality" and three "revealed way" a more comprehensive measure, to explore the effects of different aspects of the forward-looking information, analysts predict. In order to explore the quality of listed companies to disclose forward-looking information is dependent on the level of difficulty or management objective and subjective predictions for fear of leaking company secrets to consider, after this paper to control the objective prediction error, observe the quality of the forward-looking information, whether will be a corresponding increase to be tested.Results:(1) a measure of the forward-looking information disclosure argument, only positive words, and funding requirements planning and quantitative analyst forecast error significantly correlated, indicating that the overall quality of information disclosure of listed companies in China is not high. Overall, the forward-looking information is not up assist analysts predict the role, but will mislead analysts’ forecasts. Other independent variables(2) a measure of the forward-looking information disclosure(except the good words and quantify the financial needs of the outside) with analysts forecasting accuracy was no significant correlation between securities analysts indicate that China has to have some ability to identify and predict, but Britain and other developed countries, and there is a huge gap compared, and poor information environment in which our analyst.(3) adding the life cycle affect, and return the results to join this factor was not significantly different before. This indicates that the accuracy of the forward-looking information disclosure quality of listed companies and will not reduce the prediction error of objectively improves, but the management is not willing to disclose the subjective quality of the forward-looking information, which may be due to fear leak confidential business considerations.Possible innovations:(1) There are still no direct study of the literature on the impact of forward-looking information analyst forecasts, the paper quality of the information regarding the impact of the analysis and forecast of the research is a useful supplement.(2) From the "quantity" forward-looking information, "quality" and "disclosure mode" manually collecting three forward-looking information disclosure of listed companies, in a certain measure of innovation, and for the first-hand data.This paper studies revealed securities regulators should aim to develop better information disclosure standards, improve the quality of information disclosure of listed companies, increased supervision and punishment, to develop appropriate policies to create favorable conditions for the promotion of the healthy development of the industry analysts; to Forward-looking information is key to improving the quality of disclosure that regulators should take appropriate measures to dispel the fear of disclosure of management concerns. Investors and other analysts forecast should remain rational, because of the limited predictive ability of securities analysts, they may also be information disclosure of listed companies are misleading.