Life Cycle,Information Disclosure Quality And Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy

With the development of China's capital market,more and more enterprises successfully listed,and the business of listed companies is more complicated.However,investors do not have the ability to improve their investment analysis accordingly,which makes the demand for information interpretation more urgent.Analysts as the market professional information interpreter,whose forecast reports get a rapid growth in recent years,play a very significant part in capital market.As one of the important attributes predicted by analysts,earnings forecast accuracy is widely concerned by investors and favored by academics.This paper examines the factors that influence the analyst's earnings forecast accuracy from the two perspectives of the information itself and its dissemination.On the one hand,like a person's life,there will be birth,growth and maturity at different times in a firm,and each period has different characteristics,which results the difference of the persistence of earnings which has an important impact on the analyst's earnings forecast accuracy.On the other hand,the enterprise information disclosure is the most important way for analysts to obtain enterprise information,and the quality of information disclosure will have a vital impact on the accuracy of the analyst's earnings forecast.Moreover,it is also worthwhile to study whether there is a difference in information disclosure influence on the analyst'searnings forecast accuracy in the different lifecycle.On the basis of predecessors,this paper chooses the relevant data of listed companies in Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2015 with the help of the information quality evaluation of listed companies of Shenzhen Stock Exchange to study the impact of enterprise life cycle and information disclosure on analyst earnings forecast accuracy.The results show that the enterprise life cycle and the quality of information disclosure have an important influence on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy.The specific performance is as follows:First,the enterprise life cycle will have an impact on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy.Compared with the growth and decline period,the analysts are more accurate in predicting the earnings of the mature companies;Second,the higher the quality of information disclosure,the more accurate the analyst earnings forecast accuracy;Third,the improvement on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy of the quality of the information disclosure is not the same in different life cycle.Compared with the growth period and the maturity of the company,the improvement of the quality of information disclosure on the decline of the company's analyst earnings forecast accuracy improvement effect is more significant.In order to test the robustness of the results,this paper re-examine the results by changing the measurement method of the enterprise life cycle and the measurement method of the quality of information disclosure.This paper first discusses the role of analyst earnings forecast in China's capital market,and then uses the analyst earnings forecast accuracy as the foothold to consider the impact of analyst earnings forecast accuracy factor,from the perspective of information itself and information transmission.The second chapter is the present situation of the research on the life cycle,the quality of information disclosure and the earnings forecast accuracy of the analyst.And then this part documents about the enterprise life cycle,the quality of information disclosure and the analyst earnings forecast accuracy respectively.On the basis of summarizing previous research,this paper puts forward the research contents of this paper,and briefly summarizes the future development direction.The third chapter is theoretical analysis part.This part introduces corporate life cycle theory and information asymmetry theory,combined with the existing literature on the life cycle,the quality of information disclosure and analyst earnings forecast accuracy,putting forward the two hypotheses of this paper.The fourth chapter is study design,which mainly explains the dependent variables,the independent variables and the control variables.In the fifth chapter,empirical analysis and regression analysis are carried out,and the results are explained.The sixth chapter is the robustness test.In this paper,we will confirm the results of this paper again by replacing the dependent and independent variables with other proxy variables.The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the study.We will summarize the research of the text,and on this basis provide suggestions for the analyst's earnings forecast.According to previous studies,the following innovations have been made:for the first time,although domestic researches are many about earnings predictions accuracy of analysts,few scholars have incorporated the enterprise life cycle into the research field.The research of this paper makes the research of analyst's earnings forecast more comprehensive and enriches the literature of this aspect.Secondly,the information asymmetry is prevalent between the enterprise and the market investor,and the information disclosure as an important way for enterprises to deliver information to analysts will have an important impact on the analyst's earnings forecast accuracy.This paper examines whether the impact of the improvement of the quality of information disclosure on the analyst's earnings forecast in different enterprise life cycles is different.In this paper,the influence of the improvement of the quality of information disclosure on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy is different.It can help us understand the impact of the quality of information disclosure on the analyst earnings forecast deeper.