Research On Agricultural Mechanization Development And Prediction Model In Hunan Province

Agricultural mechanization, which has been proved to be an effective way to increase agricultural production, witnessed unprecedented development in recent yeas and has exerted essential impact on agricultural development in Hunan province. However, it still faces serious challenges such as fragmented, unbalanced in development which dissatisfy the social and economic develop requirement in Hunan Province. Therefore, it’s very necessary and urgent to find out the possible causes, and then propose appropriate countermeasures to address the above-mentioned issues.First of all, the statistics of agricultural mechanization is analyzed to describe the general characteristics and the overall level of agriculture mechanization in Hunan Province. The statistics shows that the agricultural mechanization level in Hunan province has been improved rapidly with diversified agricultural machinery, the optimized agricultural machinery structure, rapidly implicated agricultural technologies and prosperous agricultural machinery community service that indicate the agricultural mechanization of Hunan had entered into the intermediate period. In spite of the gratifying achievement, mounting challenges that still impede the agricultural mechanization development remain to be addressed which include irrational assembly structure of agricultural machinery, unbalanced development among different area and inharmonious mechanization in the various production processes.Secondly, in response to these characteristics and problems, the promoting factors and the constraints of agricultural mechanization are systematically analyzed. On one hand, the improved relevant laws and regulations and the Government policy incentives for agricultural mechanization form the solid foundation of the rapid development. Moreover, the good agricultural machinery manufacturing industry and the effective agricultural mechanization promotion system drive the fast growth in agricultural mechanization. On the other hand, the hilly geomorphologic characteristics impede large-scale operation and the weak agricultural infrastructure hinders the agricultural development. In addition, the large transfer of rural labor and inadequate agricultural machinery market restrict the agricultural development in some degree.Then, the detailed analysis is carried on the total agricultural machinery power, an important index that reflecting the agricultural mechanization level. This index is influenced by many factors, and it is very necessary to find out the relevant contributing factor and their relationship. Based on correlation analysis, the agricultural mechanization statistics of Hunan province since 2007, including the total investment of agricultural mechanization, the education of rural labor force, the agricultural mechanization employees received secondary education and the agricultural mechanization promoting employees are used to analyze relationship between the different factor and the key index and the degree of affect on the agricultural mechanization level. The agricultural machinery power predictive model is established to analyze and predict the agricultural mechanization development trend in Hunan province by using multiple linear regressions analyzing method. This model provides a reference for the agricultural administration department when making related planning.Finally, according to the status of mechanization in Hunan province, the possibly effective measures are proposed to upgrade the development of agricultural mechanization.In a word, agricultural mechanization is a dynamic process. To analyze the existed problem and identify the key contributing factors and major constraints, and then propose appropriate countermeasures are of great significance for improving the agriculture mechanization level and then to promote the agricultural production and the rural economy in Hunan province.