| In view of the country in recent years a series of macro-control policies of real estate market, the adjustment of the industry scale of commercial bank credit the influence of the real estate market is closely to our country.At present, China’s economic development in the "new normal", at the beginning of 2014 countries implemented the strict limit for purchasing credit policy, has a strong regulatory role on the real estate market, real estate developer, the financing difficulty, and the pessimistic expectations, which produces to the housing real estate market price into a period of decline.Given in the first half of the house price fluctuation, a second-tier cities of China’s economy and closely related to prices, therefore, local governments in order to stability, then introduced a series of protective measures, to broaden the personal mortgage loan approval process, enhance consumer confidence in the property market, in late 2014, the real estate market price into the relatively stable stage of moderate government regulation.In view of the real estate market in our country the important position of national economy, and its market price is closely related to people’s life, government regulation and control policy, though no direct intervention on prices, but its release policy signal has a guidance on bank credit business that sexual function.As Henan province with a population of more than 100 million, real estate prices also attracts the most attention and our vital interests are closely related.House prices fall, will be sent to the entire market pessimism, real estate developers to avoid losses, and the safety of the bank credit funds also affected, by contrast, once house prices, bank credit and real estate developers and individual mortgage buyers of capital expansion, promote each other may make room to continue to grow the price cycle, once excessive will have bubbles, unfettered, eventually may be due to some unexpected circumstances, lead to the real estate market bubble burst, is likely to lead to a repeat of the us sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008.Therefore, how to control the real estate prices, as the funds most closely contact with the developers of bank credit business regulation will also be a long way to go.The parting of 2014 has not all been plain sailing for real estate market development, under the influence of the economic environment is generally weak, the real estate market in Henan province has entered the age of silver, enveloped pessimism, market turnover compared to last year dropped significantly, but a series of easy credit policy and makes the real estate prices rebounded.Although the macroeconomic indicators of Henan province in 2014, GDP and total retail price index at the higher levels, but compared to the same period last year, all have different degrees of down.Between the context of the whole real estate market growth is slowing, we can’t help thinking of the real estate market whether there is a rapid development, but also the real estate price and the bank credit is really doubt whether there is a synergistic effect.Bank credit impact on housing prices, or changes in the prices caused by the change of the bank credit, or whether there is relationship between the two, the author bring these questions to the real estate market in Henan province and the relationship between the bank credit scale to carry on the simple analysis.First of all, based on the entire national economy and the development of the real estate market as the background, simple analysis in the study and draw lessons from domestic and foreign scholars on the basis of research achievements on this field, by collecting relevant data of the real estate market in Henan province and Henan province real estate development loans and individual mortgage loan amount data, on the basis of using the Eviews6 software correlation regression analysis and vector autoregressive model analysis of the creation.Finally concluded that the real estate market price and the bank credit in Henan province positively related to the long-term equilibrium and stable development of relations, and through the VAR model, it is concluded that the bank credit to Henan house price growth coefficient is 0.88, the bank credit increase or decrease of 1 unit, will have a 0.88 unit price to the real estate market in Henan province, the rise and fall of influence.Then, the author through the cointegration test and granger causality analysis, actually there is no causality between.Finally, starting from its own specific characteristics of Henan province, respectively, the two aspects of the real estate market and bank credit in Henan is simple, and gives the Suggestions and opinions, and points out that as the most populous province of Henan, more should from the perspective of the people’s livelihood to the regulation of the real estate market, under the condition of meet the demand of People’s Daily life, and promote the stable development of economy in Henan province, the management risk of the bank credit will also be more secure.As commercial Banks, now despite the restrictions on the real estate financing, but also should be on the basis of the control quality customers, to more easily affected by the market expected volatility before admittance and loan of small and medium-sized real estate developers to strict censorship and post-loan supervision, strictly controls the assets safety, strengthen the improvement of the credit system and the safety of credit funds management, guarantee the interests of both sides, as developers, although bank credit is the most reliable and one of the lowest cost of financing channels, but commercial Banks are vulnerable to the influence of national economic policy and national macroeconomic regulation and control intervention, developers through the loans will be affected by the corresponding, thus requiring developers to expand the financing channels, more broadly once credit tightening, can obtain funds from other sources, to stop himself into the influence of the capital turnover tension. |
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