Study On Application Of Efficacy Coefficient Method Based On Chemical Industry Of Listing Corporation Financial Early Warning

2014, in the extremely severe macroeconomic situation, the basic chemical industry to achieve the industry transformation and upgrading, to ease the overcapacity played an important role.Along with the domestic and foreign basic chemical industry’s competition intensifies, the downstream market also because the international crude oil price fluctuation influence is more serious, the market uncertainty further strengthened. The severe market environment, the variety of uncertainty factor is more and more, the uncertainty of the understanding of the existence of limitations, these circumstances prompted the enterprise financial crisis. It is urgent to set up enterprise’s financial risk early warning model, the development of enterprises also determines the enterprise needs to establish a financial risk early warning model and enterprise managers can take corresponding preventive measures according to the warning.Based on domestic and foreign research on financial crisis early warning of related literature, combined with chemical industry in our country based on industry characteristics and the efficacy coefficient method is used to construct basic chemical industry of our country listed company financial early warning model and the carried out related research analysis.This paper mainly from two aspects of theoretical analysis and empirical research to the financial early warning of the chemical industry listing Corporation.In the theoretical analysis part, it is mainly reflected in the application of theoretical analysis and basic chemical industry listing Corporation of the development trend of two aspects of analysis.The basic concepts of financial risk early warning is mainly composed of the financial risk, financial crisis and financial early warning, this article has carried on the detailed explanation, and discusses the relationship between the three, also in the fundamental understanding of the concept of efficacy coefficient method of the selection methods for the feasibility of building the financial early-warning model to analyze the correlation; secondly according to the development situation of Listed Companies in the basic chemical industry and environmental analysis of proposed basic chemical industry listed companies to construct the financial early-warning system of necessity.In the empirical research, the main is reflected in the financial early warning model of the building and financial warning analysis of two aspects. In the construction of the financial early-warning model, is mainly based on financial warning index selection principle, combined with the basic chemical industry listing Corporation industry characteristics, selected 17 relevant financial early-warning index, and method and related questionnaire to determine the financial index weight through the analytic hierarchy process, and then construct the financial early-warning model efficiency coefficient method the basic chemical industry based on listing Corporation; then through empirical research on the selection of the horizontal 2014 10 ST companies, and according to the requirements of the 30 longitudinal empirical listing Corporation for 5 years 2010-2014 classification of basic chemical industry sub sectors, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for the study of listing Corporation financial early-warning basic chemical industry.The innovation of this paper lies in basic chemical industry with industry characteristics, reasonable use of analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method adopted financial early warning for listed companies in the basic chemical industry, and transverse and longitudinal empirical research of financial situation of the selected 40 ST companies and non ST companies, in order to prove the effectiveness of the financial early warning model.