The Linkage Effects And Fluctuation Causes Of Global House Price

With the global economic integration and trade liberalization，price fluctuationchanges in regional and space appeared synchronous correlation effects or the leadingand lagging fluctuation. Data shows that since the financial crisis of Americanhappened in2007, the American house price appeared the inflection point. With thesharp decline of America house price，the growth rate of housing prices declined ordecayed in most countries of the world. Then as the financial crisis recovered since2009, the global economic recovered, the global real estate market became booming,and the house price rose rapidly in most countries.This paper studies the linkage effects and fluctuation causes of the global houseprice, selecting the data of house price index and influence factors from the2000to2013of the world’s major countries and regions, using the method of error correctionand panel data model, and find the linkage effects among the global price and the sizeof price influence is different of each countries, then find that the exchange rate,interest rate, economic level, rate of inflation and trade volume of import and exportare the root causes of global prices fluctuations. Furthermore, the paper probes priceinteraction effects and causes between China and other countries.The research on the real estate market from the global market perspectiveenables us to understand the linkage effects and causes of global real estate market,thus better grasp the prices fluctuation of China dynamically, and understand theposition and factors of China’s real estate industry in the world. This study providesideas and tools for the development of China’s real estate, and helps China tounderstand the future development trend of the real estate industry; and treats theprices linkage effects as theoretical supports, established a " real estate priceadjustment mechanism cross-country ", and regulates China’s real estate marketreasonably, which can make the China’s real estate industry become a more developedand mature market, thus format a long-term stability mechanism of the real estate.The main works are as follows: (1) The paper obtains the prices fluctuation characteristics of each country, anddivided it into six categories. The paper analyzed the house price index of the samplescountry using descriptive statistical analysis, from which we obtains the pricesfluctuation characteristics of each country and divides it into six categories, anddepicts the geographical distribution and fluctuation types of sample countries usingMapInfo tools.(2) We find that there are linkage effects between global house prices. Based onthe existing research of house price linkage effects among regional and provinces, thepaper studies the linkage effects and draws Granger causality and the size of houseprices influence between the sample countries from the perspective of global realestate market using cointegration and error correction model, and recognizes China’sposition in the global real estate market, which provides ideas and tools for thedevelopment of the real estate.(3) We explore the causes of fluctuation of global prices using panel data models.On the basis of the global price linkage effect, we construct factors of global houseprice fluctuation; further establish the panel data model to analyze the causes ofglobal price fluctuation, and analyze volatility factors of China uniquely, which canprovide basis for the development of China’s real estate industry through learningfrom the successful experience of other countries.