Research On The Influence Of House Price Fluctuation On Urban Residents' Consumption

The relationship between assets and consumption has been studied for a long time in economics field.Economists in the early age believed that the financial wealth of consumers is a major part of their assets.And they mainly concerned about the impact of assets such as stocks and funds on consumption.Until the 1980 s,when the subprime crisis broke out in Japan and the United States,researchers in the theoretical circles turned their attention to the impact of housing assets on Residents' consumption.Since the end of last century China housing commercialization reform,the real estate industry has made significant development,residents of housing owned rate continues to rise,real estate assets gradually become the main urban residents family wealth,residential,shops and other main real asset price fluctuations impact on consumption and the greater the.Especially in recent years,while house prices continue to climb,the consumption rate of residents in China is still in a low state.In this context,the relationship between house prices and residents' consumption has been gradually paid attention to.This paper,taking the life cycle-lasting income hypothesis as the theoretical framework,takes Anhui Province as the research object,combines theoretical research with empirical analysis,and tries to explain the impact of house prices on consumption.In the theoretical research part,this paper first expounds the development process of the consumption function theory,and then analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of the price fluctuation on the urban residents' consumption.In the empirical analysis part,the impact of house prices on consumption is investigated from the macro and micro level.Influence on urban residential consumption of the whole macro level investigation of15 prefecture level cities in Anhui province prices;firstly around the city from 2001 to2016 annual data,to establish the city panel data section of the model,the estimation results show that the present stage Anhui province current income mainly produce the most positive effect on the consumption of urban residents income.The elasticity of consumption is 0.770,i.e.every increase of income of 1%,consumption will increase0.770%;elastic prices on consumption of 0.105,prices rose 1%,consumption will increase by 0.105%.The influence of Anhui province price difference of consumption of different income groups of micro level;the first selection of CFPS in Anhui province from 2010 to2014 in the urban household survey data,then according to the income level is divided into five levels,then construct a panel data model foundation,the analysis results show thathousing prices have different effects on Anhui province income groups,consumer spending,but maintained a positive role in promoting.The wealth effect of housing prices to low-income families,low-income families and middle-income families were obvious,and the elastic coefficients were 0.106,0.072 and 0.082;the high income household wealth effect is not obvious,the elastic coefficient is 0.052;the effects of high income coefficient is only 0.014,the wealth effect is not obvious.On the basis of the empirical research on the macro and micro level,and combining the status of Anhui Province,the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.For example,we should improve the income level of the residents,reduce the income gap,keep the control of the real estate market,and improve the housing security system with the same rental and sale.