Charing And Swapping Demand Ananlysis And Forecast Of Elctric Vehicles

With the supply tension of oil resources and increasingly strict emissions regulations, Electric vehicles have become the development trend and start to popularize in the world. The government began to vigorously promote electric vehicles since2001, although it has not been widely commercialized, but with the technology progress and the improvement of charging infrastructures, it will achieve great growth. The power demand of the large number of electric vehicles may cause challenge to the power system. And the promotion of electric vehicles relies on the perfect charging infrastructure network. While the uncertainty of charging demand may lead to the uncertainty of charging equipment and service capacity in charging facilities, thus affects the enthusiasm of investment in the construction of charging infrastructure. Therefore, the research of charging and swapping demand analysis and forecast is crucial in promoting the electric vehicles and reducing the environment pollution.However, when forecasting the electricity demand caused by electric vehicles, due to the not uniformed technical standard of power supply, there are two methods of power supply. One way is the electric vehicle have access to the power grid directly and the other way is to replace the battery for power. The behavior of charging has strong randomness. Besides, electric vehicle is a new product and in lack of historical data on the marketing size and power load, its development process is also affected by a variety of irregular factors, causing difficulties in the predication of power demand due to the increasing number of electric vehicles.In order to solve the difficulties this paper put forward the following solutions: Firstly, the electricity demand will be divided into charging demand and swapping demand. Then according to the influencing factors they are classified in accordance with the electric vehicles use type for further follow-up study.Secondly, because the electric car is a new industry and its marketing size is affected by a variety of irregular factors, this paper proposes the prediction method of the electric vehicle market size based on TEI@I methodology. This method is an innovation based on the TEI@I methodology, it decompose the complex and dynamic market size forecast problem and quantify the irregular market factors into the sphere of influence using Delphi method. For the trend that can be predicted with structured data, considering the characteristics of the new products and the lack of historical scale data, this paper uses indirect combination prediction model of the traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicle market size proportional. In the indirect prediction of the traditional fuel vehicles market size, use combination forecasting method to predict the linear trend of development and grey system model to predict the nonlinear trend. Then use Bass market diffusion model to predict market proportion. The final prediction of each part of the decomposed results are integrated to get the market size of electric cars in the future.Thirdly, according to the traditional methods of power demand, the electric cars are lack of historical data. So this article analyze this problem from a new point of view of electric vehicles’power supply behavior. This paper establish the vehicle behavior model to describe the power supply process of electric vehicles. In accordance with the classification standard, the supplementary method is discussed for each type of electric vehicles. Under the settled background of power supply methods and electric infrastructure operation strategies, according to the characteristics of the power supply behavior and operation for each type of electric vehicles, the paper predicts the electric buses’swapping demand based on the route, the electric taxies’swapping demand based on types in the market, the electric business vehicle and private cars’ charging demand based on the average trip distance and analyzes the practice significance of results. And take Beijing as an example to make empirical analysis.This research is supplementary to the demand field for electric vehicles. The research can provide basis for government promotion strategy and reference for power grid on power control and infrastructures’operation.