The Exponential Adjustment On Basic Pension Of Urban And Rural Residents

With the establishment of the endowment insurance system of urban and rural residents, urban and rural residents endowment insurance research has become a hot spot,but most studies only focused on the system design and rationality research, only few research on basic pension exponential adjustment of urban and rural residents.The purpose of Old-age insurance system is to ensure that older people’s basic living standards. The new rural social endowment started the national promotion in 2009, merger of urban and rural residents endowment insurance is about in 2014, Pension standard is still keeping 55 yuan per month from 2009 until 2014, during this five years pension has never been raised. Although in 2015 the pension standard adjust to 70 yuan per month,but adjustment has randomness.Rapid economic growth, consumer prices rised, people’s income level increases, these factors make the actual purchasing power level of the pension is falling and replacement rate decrease, this conflict with the purpose of the endowment insurance. Compared with the foundation of urban workers pensions at the same time, urban and rural residents pension is too low, the same fundamental annuities is not the same between the old, do not conform to the social fair principle, and is not conducive to social stability and economic growth. Therefore, this article indexation model basis for indexation of pensions research, based on the principles guarantee the basic livelihood and adequate sharing of economic success, to build urban and rural residents basic pension benefits adjusted.This paper focuses on the following four aspects of content:First,defines the related concepts of urban and rural residents endowment insurance, this paper expounds the theoretical basis of this article. Introduction of social endowment insurance, the integration of urban and rural residents’ pension, adjustment index and related concepts. Analysis of fair and efficiency theory, Carl-hicks social compensation theory, permanent income hypothesis, provide the basis for the later writing.Second, The paper analysis the necessity to adjust the pension. Introduct urban and rural pension insurance, compare urban and rural residents and urban workers pension protection mechanisms,pointed pension problems of urban and rural residents; determine the adjusted index constructed ideas.Third, establish adjust the model to determine the adjustment program.Selecting consumer spending and income data,using statistical software for regression analysis to determine the correlation coefficient. And indexation model parameters is related to growth forecasting such as CPI growth, income growth, ultimately determine the adjustment program.Finally,validate the feasibility of the model and security level. By the final adjustment scheme, the paper forecast the pensions of urban and rural residents. It analysis the new adjustment scheme of the income distribution, the influence of the financial burden, security level, verify the feasibility of the model.