The Mutation Research Of Fluctuation Of The International Dry Bulk Freight Index

With the development of international trade, the role of maritime transport in the world economic development has become increasingly apparent. As an important part of the shipping market, the traffic of the international dry bulk shipping market has accounted for more than half of the total seaborne country, and its position in the shipping market is pivotal. But recent years due to the impact of economic, political and natural conditions, the shipping market is always in the doldrums, in particular, the price of international dry bulk shipping market fluctuate violently and fell severely, many shipping companies are facing the risk of failure. As the "barometer" of the shipping market, how to grasp the fluctuation of the international dry bulk freight index well to take the right financial strategies in this adverse situation and make effective risk control to achieve long-term survival and development is the urgent problem to deal for shipping companies.Based on the existing research from both here and abroad scholars, drawing the method of determining the mutation point in the mutation theory to study the Baltic Dry Index volatility, on this basis, analyzing the market price fluctuation of dry bulk transport deeply, the research results will be helpful for shipping companies to grasp the changing shipping market more effectively, control business and investment risk more effectively and increase economic efficiency.Firstly, it is the brief overview of the international dry bulk shipping market, including the elements analysis of the dry bulk shipping market and doing the qualitative analysis of mutability and so on. Secondly, the paper describes the concrete operational thinking of iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithms and the GARCH model and the feasibility analysis of model selection. The empirical analysis is using the ICSS to identify the mutation point in the returns sequence of BDI and find the great mutation point. And then put the mutation point into the GARCH model as dummy variable to study. Finally, concluded on the basis of empirical analysis, the conclusion is that the structural mutation will impact the volatility of returns sequence of BDI, the mutation shouldn’t be ignored in the research.