China’s Power Structure Research And Trend Forecasting Trajectory

In recent years, with the rapid development of power industry, the power structure is irrational hinder the sustainable development of China’s power industry. Optimizing the power structure has become an effective way to solve the sustainable development of our environment, resources, economy. Optimization of power structure requires power development must be coordinated with the energy, economic and environmental factors, and this is a necessary requirement power industry sustainable development strategy. Therefore, first study the relationship of power resources and the country’s economic development, energy and environmental carrying capacity, level of technology and other factors that influence the power structure optimization coordinate control.In this paper, study the characteristics of the power structure, China’s thermal power dominated power structure exacerbate environmental problems caused by inadequate resources carrying capacity and other issues. On the basis of research development path of China’s power structure since 1993, establish system dynamics model, establish environmental, resources, economy subsystems, establish environmental priority model and economic priority model, based on China’s "Energy development’Eleventh five-Year’plan" related to planning, set up two different scenarios, respectively, in satisfying priority environmental and economic priorities of the conditions for 2015,2020 power structure prediction.Prediction structure display, the development of China’s power structure change is different is the power structure in the same proportion has declined thermal power, wind power, nuclear power, and others accounting have risen, a greater proportion of thermal power decline, the corresponding wind power, nuclear power, such as the proportion of other smaller rise. As can be seen from the conclusions, the country seeks a balance in the environment and economic development, the power structure in the proportion of thermal power will be different degrees of decline.