Stusy On Volatility Of Motor Vehicle Insurance Loss Ratio Based On Underwriting Cycle

The rapid development of the economy has led to the improvement of people's living standards.Cars have gradually become "necessities" from the original "luxury".With people's deeper understanding of the insurance industry,the motor vehicle insurance industry has been developing rapidly in China.Since the 21 st century,the premium income of motor vehicle insurance industry has always accounted for about 70% of China's property insurance income,and it is a veritable "leading" business insurance in China's property insurance industry.However,at the present stage,the high loss ratio greatly affects the operating conditions of property insurance companies and restricts the development of China's motor vehicle insurance industry and even property insurance industry.Based on this realistic background,this paper studies the loss ratio of motor vehicle insurance in China,verifies the existence of cyclical phenomenon,measures the cycle length,analyzes the factors affecting the loss ratio fluctuation,and accordingly puts forward Suggestions in line with the development status of China's auto insurance market,so as to promote the healthy development of China's motor vehicle insurance industry.On motor vehicle insurance loss ratio of the existence of the phenomenon of periodic inspection and measurement,after reviewing the existing literature at home and abroad,combined with the actual situation of car insurance development in our country,this paper uses the CF filter method,the HP filter method,AR(2),three kinds of methods to calculate motor vehicle insurance of our country loss ratio of cyclical phenomenon,compare different calculation methods of conclusions,in order to come to the conclusion that more accord with Chinese actual conditions.The results show that the loss ratio of China's auto insurance has a cyclical phenomenon,with a cycle length of 4.24 to 7.66 years,which is asymmetric in terms of depth and steepness.In the study of the influence factors of loss ratio fluctuation,first of all,through three aspects(compensation expenses,premium income,loss ratio)of different factors were analyzed,and finally selected four variables to establish the VAR model,two methods by impulse response and variance decomposition to study all the variables on the fluctuation of China's auto insurance loss ratio of the mechanism and extent.It is found that in the short term,the per capita disposable income of residents and the number of motor vehicle drivers have a great influence on the fluctuation of the loss ratio,the per capita disposable income of residents has a positive influence on the loss ratio,and the number of motor vehicle drivers has a positive influence on the loss ratio.The amount of civilian automobile ownership has a negative influence on the loss ratio,which is small and stable.Highway mileage also has a negative influence on the loss ratio.Although the influence degree is small,the ratio is increasing constantly,which cannot be ignored.Based on the above conclusions,this paper argues that we should grasp the fluctuation cycle,master the variation rule and promote supervision department of "counter-cyclical" regulation,insurance company "counter-cyclical" management and try to develop commercial blue ocean market,diversified insurance products,improve quality and customer renewal rate,the agencies try to promote the steady and healthy development of insurance industry.