Research On The Impact Of Energy Substitution Policy On The Economic Cost Of Oil

With the continuous rising of China’s economy, Oil demand is growing.In addition, The continuous reduction of global oil reserves and the continuous rising of the oil prices which result in the sharp increase of China’s oil external dependency. China’s economic costs of oil dependence reached a very high level which hold back economic progress. Therefore, the search for effective energy policy to reduce the economic cost of oil is very urgent and inportant.In recent years, China is facing the situation that the great increasing demand of crude oil and the automobile exhaust pollution just because of the sharp increasing of the vehicle ownership. Thus, the new energy automotive industry which are represented by natural gas vehicles, alcohol fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles have been emerging. Developing new energy vehicles and high efficiency vehicles became an important class of energy substitution policies.Based on the background here in before, This paper, firstly selects five energy substitution policies:Popularize the natural gas vehicles、Popularize the ethanol fuel vehicles、Popularize the methanol fuel vehicles、Popularize the high efficiency vehicles、 Popularize the pure electric vehicles, And separately expounded on the specific meaning of each policy. then analyzes the ways of energy substitution policy affects the economic cost of oil, builds a bridge between energy substitution policy and economic costs of oil, and calculates the oil prices、oil prices-GDP elasticity under each energy substitution policy. Thirdly, contrastive analyzes the economic costs of oil under the baseline-scenario and policy-scenario to get the total expected benefits of energy substitution policy. And further analyzes the net economic benefits of different energy substitution policy according to the method which the total expected benefits of energy substitution policy minus the costs of implementing policy. Finally, in this paper, comperhensive considering the economic benefits and environmental benefits, targeted offers some policy advices for controling our country’s economic cost of oil.