The Forcast Of Foreign Trade Container Generation Forcast Based On The Trend Of The Yangtze River Economic Belt Import And Export Trade

Trade and the development of port and shipping Yangtze River economic belt in the country occupies an important position, and Container Production forecast is the basis for the development of port development strategy and planning, therefore, to predict the amount of container to generate the Yangtze River economic belt of the Yangtze River economic belt may harbor development direction.Paper is divided into a total of introduction, mechanism analysis, situation analysis, quantitative analysis, and conclusions countermeasures five parts. The introduction describes the current situation as well as domestic research papers on container frame prediction. Mechanism Analysis section first angle method of dynamic analysis describes the impact of foreign trade can generate the amount of container trade through foreign trade scale and structure of foreign trade based on two multi-factor, and then based on trade theory would affect the main factors in determining a region’s foreign trade as the exchange rate, the level of domestic and international economic and foreign direct investment in three areas, and each of these three factors simultaneously influence the mechanism of foreign trade analysis. Situation Analysis section first describes the current situation along the coast as well as container and cargo throughput of the Yangtze River economic belt each river ports, and then analyzes the status quo in import and export trade of 1993-2012 Yangtze River economic belt. Firstly, based on econometric analysis part exchange rates, domestic and international economic level, the impact of foreign direct investment mechanism of foreign trade, the use of VAR models were predicting the export trade and import trade 2013-2020 Yangtze River economic belt 11 regions; then according to dynamic analysis of multivariate model, combining research results in the field of system dynamics to determine the coefficient of container generated, based on the amount of import and export trade forecast predicted 11 regions, respectively, 2013-2020 Yangtze River Economic Belt export and import containers Container Production generation the amount. By forecasting results, 2013-2020 import and export trade volume of container size and generate Yangtze River economic belt will continue to expand, regional differences will be slightly reduced, resulting in a trade surplus of empty containers phenomenon will become increasingly serious. Finally, the paper points out that the Yangtze River economic belt should promote container construction, expansion of container hinterland, promoting transporting empty containers to accommodate future development trends of the container.Firstly, hoping to provide some strategic basis for the development of the port plans for the future Yangtze River Economic Belt, through the Yangtze River economic belt Container Production forecasts, secondly, to undertake a cross-section paper incoming logistics theory and trade theory, the theory of port and shipping logistics international trade theory, making the study more theoretical significance.