Study On The Influence Of Urbanization On Energy Intensity In China

Nowadays, the urbanization process is in a stage of rapid advance in China. However, within the new environment at home and abroad, growing malpractices of urbanization in the traditional sense and growing pressure of energy supply-demand gap and carbon emissions call for a new path of urbanization, which is the inevitable choice to control energy intensity and reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it is of great significance for China’s future urbanization development path selection and the policy of energy saving and emission reduction to clarify the impact of urbanization on energy intensity.First of all, the concept of urbanization was defined from the perspective of population, economy and society according to the connotation of urbanization. Then, the present situation of urbanization development in China was described. Further, from the perspective of scale, intensity and structure, the present situation of energy consumption in China was described. On the basis, the influencing mechanism of urbanization on energy consumption of our country was analyzed. Based on the influencing mechanism, Influence of urbanization on energy consumption intensity of effect was analyzed imprically. At the national level, the ridge regression model and state space model were applied to analyze the overall effect of urbanization on energy intensity, including analysis of long-term effect(coordination) and time-varying effect(dynamic relation). On the regional difference level, the fixed effect panel model was applied to carry on a comparative study on influence of urbanization on energy intensity of regional differences. Then, the Hansen threshold panel model was applied to verify asymmetry of the relationship between urbanization and energy intensity, and based on the analysis of asymmetry, provincial differences of the relationship between new type of urbanization and energy intensity were described. In this paper, the main research conclusions are as follows.(1) Through the analysis of long-term effects of urbanization on energy intensity from 1978 to 2012, we can know that the overall coordination between China’s urbanization process and energy consumption is not ideal. The denotative development of urbanization and energy consumption are of poor coordination. By contrast, the connotative development of urbanization and energy consumption are relatively harmonious.(2) Through the analysis of the time-varying effect of new type of urbanization on energy intensity, we can conclude that while the denotative development or expansion of urbanization is at the expense of consuming a certain amount of energy, they can promote the efficiency of energy utilization at the same time. Whereas connotative development and structure transformation which conforms to the concept of urbanization are better to play the effect of controlling energy intensity in most of the time since the reform and opening up. And the energy saving effect are improving over time.(3) Population, economic and social factors of urbanization all have asymmetrical impact on energy intensity: In the perspective of population, a modest increase in the population size can help to reduce energy intensity. And the energy saving effect of population structure adjustment can improve as the percentage of the tertiary industry employment increases in total employment. In the perspective of economy, it is not suitable whether the economic scale is too small or too large. A moderate economic scale is the most beneficial for controlling energy intensity. In terms of economic structure, when the tertiary industry output value in GDP has reached more than 47.12%, its inhibitory effect on energy intensity is the most significant. In the perspective of society, the current income of residents in our country is too low that their consumption ability is insufficient, causing that the effect of controlling energy intensity for the vast majority of provinces. When expenditure of food accounts for too much in consumption expenditure, it is not helpful to the control of energy intensity.Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis and China’s specific national conditions, a few suggestions that can be referenced were put forward from the national level and the level of the regional difference.