Research On Supply Chain Disruption Based On Online Customer Reaction Tostock-out

With the rapid development of internet technology and logistics industry, online shopping has become increasingly popular. Due to its convenience, purchase behavior of online customers is more flexible. The stockout rate of online stores is higher than that of offline stores, easily resulting in supply chain disruption. Since customers perform as the subject driving supply chain demand, their response to stock-out can lead to low efficiency of the supply chain. Combining the research in the field of behavioral science with management science, t his paper adopts the method of simulation modeling to study on whether online customer response to stock-out has significant effect on the market share and the dynamics of related supply chains. Hence results of the research can be not only theoretically significant but provide enterprises with operational decision-making strategies as well.This study constructs an Agent-based model with customer Agent, website Agent and manufacture Agent. Experimential variables include online customer reaction to stock-out as well as initial website market share and brand market share. Then quantitative research is conducted on whether they have influence on the market share of supply chain enterprises and on the effect degree. Simulation results show that online customer reaction to stock-out and initial matket share can generate significant impact on the market share of each link, but the specific influencing factors and effect degree vary among the links. In addition, coping strategies are put forword that online retailers can supply substitute’s promotion and cultivate customer website loyalty; and manufactures should cultivate customer brand loyalty.This study also constructs a model with two competitive supply chains based on Petri-net simulation technology; meanwhile, home page and subpages are established respectively representing the whole supply chain as well as customer, website and manufacture. Then quantitative research is employed on the effect of customer response to stock-out to the dynamics of the two supply chains. Simulation results demonstrate that the occurrence of stock-out will lead to bullwhip effect. The research also explore specific influencing factors of the bullwhip effect of both stock-out brand and competing brand. Considering the characteristics of E-marketing, the study analyses the significant influencing factors of the middle link’s dynamics. When facing supply chain disruption, enterprise managers can refer to these results for making decision and reducing enterprise losses.