Analysis Of Oil Price Fluctuation And Its Impact On Chinese Economy

Oil is very importment for a country’s economic development as industrial materials.We need more and more oil and its derivatives after china become a member of WTO.The international oil price effected by terrorism,political inerference has become more and more unstable.Studing the trend of world oil price is good for chinese economic development.The traditional analysis of oil price focused on qualitative theoretical analysis and some relatively simple regression analysis can’t find inner statistical regularity.As to the situation, ARMA-GARCH used in financial engineering is applied to the analysis of oil price.ARMA-GARCH can find more reason of change of oil price and trend and has more statistical significance, compared with qualitative theoretical analysis and some relatively simple regression analysis.After pretreatment of historical price data, we test the banlance of sequence and choose the best model.At the smae time,we find that there is a stable long-term cointegration relationship between DAQING and WTI.The resudual sequence has high order effect and meet the GARCH model.Then we study the impact of change of oil price on our economic development based on the simulation of GTAP model.Meanwhile,we find there is significant correlation between changes of oil price and chinese GDP based on new measures.Finally,we put forward some suggestions based on the results above.