| Oil is called the blood of the industry whose Price increase attracts attention of many countries. Accompanying by the development of China's economy and the going on of industrialization, the demand for oil is more and more strong. As an essential industrial material, oil plays an important part in the whole economy life of China. In recent years, the frequent fluctuations in international oil prices come from supply and demand, politics, economy, war and other factors, and oil prices show rising trend. As China's oil pricing mechanism reform to push forward continuously, China's economy will be more and more influenced by the international oil price fluctuations. Therefore, studying the history of movements in international oil prices as well as the different characteristics of the fluctuations in the level of oil prices on China's macro-economic shocks play an important role.It applies qualitative and quantitative analysis method with this paper that combines the use of time series and the GTAP model .Study on the history of the international oil price fluctuations and the design characteristics of the two simulation scenarios of oil price volatility in this paper. At the same time, there is the empirical analysis on China's macro-economy and industry department impact.Empirical research demonstrated that: fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant GARCH effects and volatility asymmetry. The increased costs impact is relatively small for agriculture and tertiary industry (apart from the transport industry) when the oil prices rise from the industry point of view. In addition to the energy sector itself, some of the departments such as the transport industry, chemical industry and metal industry are most affected. At the same time, a fixed price of domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is not good in favor of energy-saving efficiency and the energy development strategy. Finally, some scientific policy recommendations are put forward from the study result. |
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