| Development of real estate development project cost has the irreversibility, management flexibility, and susceptible to the influence of policy factors, increased the difficulty of the investment decisions. There are some real estate enterprises take the rapid development of fast sales strategy, but growth in corporate profits is not high. Real options method was applied to real estate development project investment decision-making, can make up for the shortcomings of traditional methods, avoid the investment decision-making errors.In this paper, the real options method and traditional investment decision-making method has carried on the comparative analysis, discusses the characteristics of real estate development projects and real estate development projects in the implied uncertainty. Find a project if there is a delay options, immediately the income gained by the development is not necessarily the highest, and choose to delay development is likely to gain higher returns.Combining with an actual case of a commercial office building project were analyzed, and the initial application of net present value analysis method, calculated the project totaling 118.73 million yuan. Then through the establishment of the case project of Black- Scholes option pricing model, B-s model parameters, generation into the formula and obtained the project including real option value totaling 291.61 million yuan; And related factors of real option model(A present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflow sigma X and volatility) sensitivity analysis, find the key factors influencing the project value in this model the front, the project A present value of cash inflows(5.4652), negative the present value of the cash outflow for project X(3.450). Found in the final analysis the project benefit, by delaying a after years of development, the economic benefits than immediate development project in 1.6% higher return on investment. And on the social effects and ecological environment are achieved positive benefits, more mature approach to investing in BGY group, on the design of the surrounding ecological environment more fusion.Real option of investment decision in our country is still relatively new field of study, experience is not much, suggest similar real estate development projects in the future application of real options method to the analysis of project investment strategy, strive to achieve more comprehensive benefit of the project. |
