Research On The Financial Risk Early Warning System Of Listed Foreign Trade Enterprise Under The Background Of The RMB Appreciation

Ever since the 21 st century, especially in 2005 when we gave up our package/wholesale monetary policy and implemented the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate, though occasionally showing signs of two-way volatility, has continued to show appreciation trend on the whole. Taking the dollar exchange rate for example, the spot exchange rate of RMB has increased by 25% from 8.1917 in 2005, to 6.1428 in December 2014.This trend of RMB exchange rate appreciation is expected to be maintained in the next few years, as well as have a significant impact on our national economy.Under the continuous development of information, network, communications and transportation technology advances, the trend of world economy integration has become irreversible. With the deepening of reform and opening up, Chinese enterprises has gone abroad to compete in the world market and won more opportunities to share the world’s resources, hence the prosperity of foreign trade enterprises. As an important factor affecting the competitiveness and the level of profits for foreign trade enterprises, continuous RMB appreciation has brought opportunities for China’s foreign trade enterprises, as well as a more serious financial risk. Against this background, it is of great significance for foreign trade enterprises to explore financial early warning, strengthen their management, and ultimately improve financial performance.After reviewing the research achievements at home and abroad, the paper did a detailed explanation on the financial risks the companies face under the revaluation background based on the business characteristics of foreign trade enterprises, providing the theoretical basis for early warning system of financial risks for foreign trade listed enterprises. Then, targeting certain listed companies, it selected the appropriate financial indicators to reflect the specific impact brought by RMB exchange rate appreciation on corporate financial performance. At first, it used SPSS18.0 software to extract principal components of the selected 20 indicators, further applied independent sample t test, and obtained 7 significantly higher indicators to build early warning models of BP neural network.Next, Matlab2012 b software was used to substitute the data into the model to obtain test results. Finally, Empirical Analysis showed that the financial early warning accuracy of BP neural network on China’s foreign trade listed companies under the background of RMB appreciation reached 97.15%.Finally, case analysis was used to check the indicators of the foreign trade listed company S by substituting them into the model, and the analysis showed the company’s deteriorating financial performance, as well as drew inspiration for China’s foreign trade enterprises.