Study On The Risk In Housing Replacement Between Senior Housing And Elderly Original Housing

With the aged tendency of our population growing, China’s current pension system is far from perfect, lack of pension resources and aged issues grim. Among them, old age quality of older people, particularly, the quality of living and aged service issues is prominent. Currently, the living situation of the elderly can be summarized as poor quality housing environment and lack of elderly service facilities. Our country belongs to the community that people is old before getting rich, for the majority of the elderly, housing purchased at a young age become the most important assets of individuals and family. At the same time, senior housing projects which is suitable for elderly people, in line with the psychological and physiological characteristics of the elderly and be able to meet the needs of older people in social activities, are rapidly advancing in major cities. Against this background, this paper proposes the mode of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing, to make it possible for the elderly who want to improve the quality of life that obtains senior housing through the way of housing replacement in their limited economic conditions. As a complement and supplement of existing old-age security mode, the mode of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing will reduce the burden of Social Pension Security and improve the quality of life of older people in their later years. To ensure the smooth development of the mode of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing, we must In-depth analysis and study the risks involved in the operation.Based on the above research background, paper firstly proposed the concept of the mode of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing, introduces the basic conditions, including features, the participating institutions and operational processes, etc. On the basis of detailed description of the mode, the paper put forward risk identification framework, analysis all kinds of related risk factors include housing value fluctuations risk, real estate market volatility risk, moral hazard, policy risk, liquidity risk and operational risk, and study its mechanism. After that, we further analysis and forecast the two key risk factors of housing value fluctuations and real estate market volatility by establishing empirical model, mainly discuss the Application of the GM-Markov Model in predicting housing value fluctuations, and carried out correlation test on the control of housing value fluctuations risk. In addition, using principle componential analysis and spectral analysis techniques to describe real estate market volatility risk.Finally, on the basis of theoretical research and risk studies of the mode of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing, this paper puts forward some concrete measures and proposals of risk management to carry out the business of housing replacement between senior housing and elderly original housing, and pointed out the existed deficiencies and future research directions.