Study On The Change Of Housing Demand In China Based On The Perspective Of Aging

The demand for urban housing has increased unprecedentedl y since the government's reform of the urban housing system in 1998.At the same time,China has graduall y entered an aging societ y.As the subject of purchasing,the population determines the develo pment of the real estate market.So the stud y of relationship between the population age structure and the demand for housing,it will help deepen the understanding of the changing trend of housing demand in the aging societ y.This paper takes the housing demand and the elderl y dependency ratio as the main research object,and conducts the empirical anal ysis on the relationship between the two steps,the whole of China as a time series model is studied,and the use of China's 31 provinces and autonomous reg ions in 2005-2015 panel data model.In this way,the relationship between the Chinese housing demand and the aging population can not only be obtained from the order of the total to the point,but also the differences between different regions can be obser ved concretely.On the basis of population prediction,China's future housing demand is forecast.Finally,the author puts forward policy Suggestions based on the empirical results and prediction results.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)There is a significant positive correlation between elderl y depe ndency ratio and housing demand,based on the measurement model of this paper and the concrete empirical results of the provincial panel data,the results show that housing demand will increase b y 2.2 percent for each additional percentage point raised b y the elderl y.Housing demand will continue to rise because of an increase in the dependency ratio of elderl y people between 2015 and 2025.(2)There is a significant n egative correlation between child dependenc y ratio and housing demand,based on the measurement model of this paper and the concrete empirical results of the provincial panel data,the results show that the demand for housing will decrease by 1.4% when the children are raised b y one percentage point.(3)In the eastern region,the positive correlation between elderly dependency ratio and housing demand is obvious than central region and western region,while the negative correlation between child dependenc y ratio and housing demand in the western region is more obvious than tha t in central region and eastern region.(4)The elderl y dependency ratio on housing demand contributed onl y 0.63%,the housing problem of old people is still grim.(5)In control variable,the relation between the per capita dispo sable income of urban residents and housing demand is not significant,there is a significant positive correlation between the completed area of the commercial residential building and the GDP and the housing demand.