Study On Relationship Of Real Estate Market And Stock Market:Non-lag Negative Correlation And Income Inequality

Since the reform of the real estate market in 1998, the real estate industry has developed rapidly. In the first ten years of the new century, it has become an important driving force for the economic development of our country. Since the establishment of the stock market in the 90 "s of the last century, the stock market has been expanded, especially in recent years, the stock market has become an important channel for the financing of enterprises, but also one of the important targets of investment.The research on the relationship between real estate market and the stock market, it is an immense number of books. The research conclusions can be divided into five categories:lagged:negative correlation, lagging behind positive correlation, non lagged negative correlation (negative correlation), non lagged positive correlation (negative correlation), no significant relationship. Based on the data collected from December 2014 to June 2010 in China’s real estate market and stock market, it can be seen that China’s stock market and real estate market appear to have a very strong non lagged negative correlation.This phenomenon seems to be the most common, however, this can also cause deep confusion. Because, first, in theory, in accordance with the basic logic of economics, if the market is good, the economy is growing, the unemployment rate is low, then, necessarily means that the company’s business performance in the promotion, the rent of all types of real estate, then, the real estate market and the stock market is bound to rise; conversely, the real estate market and the stock market is bound to fall. In other words, there must be a strong positive correlation between the two. Second, in practice, in the more developed economies, especially the G20 countries, the real estate market and the stock market does appear to have a strong positive correlation. So, why is China’s stock market and the real estate market is showing such a strong negative correlation? This problem can actually be referred to as the China’s real estate market and the stock market’s relationship with the mystery.This paper tries to analyze the problem from the perspective of income inequality.The problem of income inequality is generally considered to be the core problem of the economy in twenty-first Century, and it is also an important problem in the present social objective. According to the National Bureau of statistics released data, China’s Gini coefficient has been running for nearly ten years, more than 0.42 of the world’s recognized as a possible cause of social unrest in the critical point. Despite the fact that there is no cause for the actual mass unrest, it has become an indisputable fact that the existence of equality and the serious influence on the economy and society in China.In view of the real estate market and the stock market in the macro level and micro level, as well as the problem of income inequality in China’s social objective existence, the relationship between the two markets under the condition of income inequality, the study of its theoretical mechanism, the existence and intensity of the problem, it has a certain theoretical and practical significance.Domestic and foreign scholars for the real estate market and the stock market interaction, and the study of the impact of income inequality, and so on, have been quite rich. However, from the perspective of inequality of income, the relationship between the real estate market and the stock market is very rare.In the theoretical analysis part, this paper analyzes the problem of income inequality will lead to the asset market and the weakness of the consumer market, and then lead to the coexistence of two kinds of contradictions of the phenomenon of excess liquidity and consumption demand. Combined with the classical asset pricing theory, this paper derives the asset pricing method under the condition of income inequality, and gives the corresponding pricing formula. By the part of income inequality under the conditions of asset pricing formula, combined with the characteristics of liquidity in asset markets and fundamentals of detachment, so that real estate market and the stock market in the same period showing a trade-off of conclusion, that is, non lag negative correlation.In the non lag negative correlation between the existence of the empirical part, the June 2010 to December 2014 100 city price index, the index and the Shanghai composite index data, using the correlation diagram and correlation coefficient, Granger causality test and OLS estimation method, the analysis of the real estate market and the stock market non lag is inversely related to the existence of; empirical results support the existence of this relationship.In the non negative correlation between the strength of the empirical part lags behind,:the 99 cities of China’s real estate price index and the Shanghai composite index data, analysis of the two non market lags behind the intensity of negative correlation. The results show that there are 8 or so of the cities with a strong or very strong non lagged negative correlation. Next, the paper classifies the cities in terms of population size, comprehensive strength, geographic region and economic region, and measures the intensity of the negative correlation between the four cities.This paper analyzes the results of empirical research, combined with theoretical analysis, the conclusion:the study found that the income inequality, and the seemingly contradictory asset market (liquidity surplus) and consumer market weakness (within the need), and then lead to the basic problem of asset price movements and capital flows, is the real estate market and the stock market is not lagging behind negative correlation. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations based on the empirical results and the relevant theoretical analysis.