The Study On The Imbalance Of China-U.S. Trade In Service

Since twenty-first Century, with the deepening of economic globalization, the political and economic relations between countries become more closely, and the trade competition becomes more and more intense. In order to adapt to the economic development trend and survive in.the fierce international competition, the economic structure of every country is slowly transforming into "service oriented". The proportion of service industry is increasing. At the same time, the trade in service develops rapidly. Its scale and proportion in the world trade continues to increase.Due to the late start of service industry of our country, the foundation is relatively weak, and the overall level is low. Most of the service products are intensive in resources and labor. They are lack of technical content and with low profit margins. These reasons lead to the disadvantage of China while competing with other countries in service trade. The service export of China is less than import. And the import of newish service products accounts for a large proportion of total imports. These result in the constantly expand of the scale of China’s service trade deficit and the imbalance of trade structure. Especially in the service trade with the United States, the problem of service trade imbalance is more prominent.The United States is the largest trading partner of our country, which plays a decisive role in China’s foreign trade. The scale of trade between our country and the United States has been increasing year by year since the launch of bilateral trade. From the beginning of the last century 90’s, China has been in a favorable position in the trade with the United States and the surplus of goods trade continued to expand. However, the continuing growth of the service trade deficit has not received enough attention from these two countries. The problem of service trade imbalance not only affects the healthy development of our country’s economy, but also influences the economic and political relations between China and the United States. The United States is the most developed country of service trade all around the world, research and analysis of the service trade imbalances between United States and China are very helpful for our country to draw lessons from its development experience and improve the competitiveness of service trade in China.This paper analyzes the development trend of services trade export and import between China and the United States in 1999-2014, and makes a detailed study on the distribution of the difference between the import and export. Based on Michael E. Porter’s National Competitive Advantage theory and the analysis of the current situation of service trade imbalance between China and the United States, this paper makes a further research on the causes of imbalance. According to the "Diamond Model", they can be summarized into four aspects:(1) Product factors:human capital and technical level of China is low; (2) Demand situation:the large amount of population and increasing per capita gross domestic product; (3) Related and supporting industries:low development level of service industry, unreasonable industrial structure, the role of goods trade is small; (4) Enterprise strategy, structure and competition:the competitiveness of China’s service enterprises is low, the United States limits Chinese companies to enter the market. Then, the factors of these four aspects are summarized as four quantitative indexes for the empirical analysis:the level of human capital, the per capita GDP, the contribution of the service industry and the trade in goods. The results of Co-integration test show that the impact of each variable on the model is significant:the increase of per capita GDP will promote the import of service, thus increasing the service trade imbalance between our country and the United States; human capital level, the contribution of service industry and goods trade will promote China’s exports in service, thus easing the service trade imbalance. In the end, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the service trade imbalance between China and the United States on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, including:develop the service industry, optimize the service trade structure, improve the system and regulations, increase the input in human capital and R&D, promote the role of goods trade and the development of the Multi-National Corporations.