| As a way of corporate finance corporate bonds is playing an increasingly important role, with the rapid development of the corporate bond market and transaction scale in 2010. participants are trying to get more information about the future economy throught many channels. Thus the marketv of debt includes more market information,which may prodict the future economy.Credit spreads of corporate bonds suggests that the investors bear more risk than the investors who buy bonds.the bigger the credit spreads of corporate bonds,the more risk of the project that the corporate invests. Corporate Finance is divided into two kinds of external financing and internal financing mode in which the external environment is more easily affected by external financing. many scholars study the relationship between credit spreads of corporate bond economic growth. Many foreign scholars found that credit spreads of corporate bonds is better than some of the risk indicators on predicting the future economy. The most research of credit spreads in china is about the factor affecting credit spreads. The research of credit spreads forecasting economy is not a lot. Therefore, this paper will try to forecast the future economy by credit spreads.The first part introduces the background and significance of this topic, some basic concepts related to this article, the structure of the paper, methods used and innovation points and shortcomings of this paper.The second part introduces the literature review. This part mainly introduced the domestic and foreign research on the credit spread of corporate bonds.The third part is theoretical analysis of the corporate bond credit spreads on macroeconomic forecasting. This part mainly study the relationship between credit spreads of corporate bonds and investment, consumption,exports.Theoretically, credit spreads and macroeconomic trends should be negatively correlated, because corporate bonds credit spreads increasing means that corporate costs more if it want to finance in the bond market. The more the corporate cost,the less profit the corporate get. Then the actual GDP will decline in the future.The fourth part introduces the analysis of corporate bond credit spreads on macroeconomic forecasting. AA grade corporate bond credit spreads is better than AAA, AA+ bond on forecasting. Different periods of corporate bond credit spreads, the AA class corporate bond credit spreads of 10 year period is better on forcasting. Corporate bond credit spreads is better on forecasting than the macroeconomic climate index, purchasing managers’ index. HP filtering method is used to analyze the economic cycle of China and Probit model is used to predict the probability of future economic recession. Through the research of this paper, we can draw the conclusion that corporate bond credit spreads is a good indicator used to measure the credit risk. It has good forecasting ability of the macroeconomic trend, so we should put the credit spread into the leading indicator of economic boom. At the same time, the forecasting results of the credit spreads are not effective, we should further improve the inter-bank bond market, in order to make the credit spreads become more effective on macroeconomic forecasting. |
