| After the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, to hedge, private equity and asset securitization products as the representative of the shadow banking system has become a hot issue research scholars. Shadow banking system is a double edged sword for the entire financial system, on one hand, shadow bank promote economic development with its characteristic high leverage, high-yield, but on the other hand, the widening scale of the shadow banking system weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy, affect the monetary authorities on bank credit control, resulting in failure of the traditional money supply statistics. In this case,research current development of the shadow banking system and credit creation mechanism of the shadow banking system, to explore the impact of the shadow banking system on the effectiveness of monetary policy, to improve China’s monetary policy system, better play the role of monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation and control. It has a very important practical significance.In this paper, combines the theoretical analysis with empirical research to further investigate the effects of the shadow banking system to China’s monetary policy, mainly as the following aspects:First, introduces the research background and significance of this paper, while summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars in the shadow banking system and Monetary policy relevant research.Second, describes the causes of shadow bank, the concept of the shadow banking system were defined and analyze credit creation mechanism of the shadow banking system; again, combines the actual situation of China’s shadow banking system with monetary policy, from the transmission mechanism, the intermediate target and the ultimate goal of the three angles analyze the impact of the influence of shadow bank to monetary policy; then, this paper selects the total scale of trust loans entrusted loans and not discount bank acceptance comprehensively represents China’s shadow bank, difference between GDP and CPI as monetary effectiveness, bank credit, money supply M2 of 4 items as research variables. under VAR model,the Granger Causality Tests,co-integration test, stability test, impulse response and Variance decomposition analyzes the shadow bank is how to influence the monetary policy.The results show that:the shadow banking system is the causes that lead to bank loans, money supply and monetary policy effectiveness fluctuation, one side,declines the loan channel’s function and leads to actual changes in the money policy.At the same time, price grew faster than economic growth under the shadow banking system influence which lead to failure of monetary policy. Finally, according to this article research conclusion, from the shadow banking system regulation and adjustment of monetary policy two perspectives propose relative policy suggestions, from the shadow banking system regulation, Optimize the monetary policy transmission mechanism, improve monetary policy intermediate target, strengthen supervision of the shadow banking systemInnovation point of this article is mainly in the following two aspects. One, different scholars for monetary policy effectiveness index selection is different, this article from the target of monetary policy, economic growth as the index of GDP and price stability index of the CPI subtraction, it is concluded that the value used to represent the effectiveness of monetary policy. Two, in order to comprehensively study the shadow banking system’s influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy, this article introduced the bank credit scale, explains the shadow Banks influence on monetary policy transmission mechanism.It has one deficiency in this paper, It is mainly reflected on the data acquisition, due to the concealment of the shadow banking system, making some data are hard to come by, even if the official data with the actual situation of economic operation also has certain deviation. |
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