An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between The Four Prefectures In Southern Xinjiang Urbanization And Economic Growth

Urbanization is not only the way for a country to achieve modernization, but also is the economic and social progress of the modernization process, it have a strong role in promoting economic growth and society. When China put forward the strategic plan for the development of “The Belt and Road ", Xinjiang is located in the center of Silk Road Economic Belt, this is an important opportunity for Xinjiang’s economic and social development. The four southern states in Xinjiang is relatively develop backward, so combining "The Belt and Road" strategy, take a study of the relationship of urbanization and economic growth of the four southern states, which can not only realize the urbanization rate as to promote regional economic development, also can adjust the direction of economic development strategy, make more reasonable and effective coordination to regional economic and social development.The Paper firstly take a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Then take an analysis of the relationship between urbanization and economic growth for the four southern prefectures(and in Hetian, Kashi, Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Aksu Area).Thirdly from two aspects of industrial structure and fiscal expenditure to obverse whether they will affect the relationship. In the empirical study, this paper not only uses the overall time series model, but also uses the panel data model.Through the qualitative and quantitative analysis, finally got the following conclusions:(1)In the period 2004-2014 of four southern prefectures, Aksu area urbanization rate was the highest,followed by Ke, the lowest is Hetian. There are two main characteristics of urbanization in the southern regions: first it has big difference of urbanization between regions. Aksu and Ke, which in the north and west of Xinjiang,is higher than Kashi and Hetian, which in the south and east of Xinjiang. Second,Urbanization rate of the sample region is higher than the industrialization rate. For the level of economic development, over the sample period the four regions showed rising trend, relatively Aksu area have the highest level, followed by the Kashi region, and Hetian is the lowest Prefecture. "Belt and Road Initiative" will take a positive effect on economy and urbanization for the southern regions.(2)The urbanization and economic growth for Southern four prefectures is mutual promotion, but the urbanization and the economic growth rate each other is not Granger cause effect. By use four southern prefectures 33 County panel data, the paper found that labor and capital are significantly promote economic growth, for the urbanization, whether this level or lag level, the variable coefficients are highly significant, indicating that urbanization rate is an important factor in economic growth and urbanization has certain positive effect on economic growth.(3)The path of Urbanization affect economic growth can not only through the industrial structure upgrade, but it can also through the government financial expenditure, namely urbanization firstly promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure and the government fiscal expenditure, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the government fiscal expenditure to further promote the economic development. Therefore, the results of two testing methods both indicate urbanization rate will promote the upgrading of the industrial structure and improve the fiscal expenditure the two mechanisms to improve economic growth. In the future, "The Belt and Road background will be through the upgrading of the industrial structure and the government to increase investment spending, will have a positive impact on the southern region’s economic growth and urbanization.